HTSC·2026-03-10 04:59Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Nanjing Steel (600282 CH), Hebei Steel Resources (000923 CH), Baosteel (600019 CH), and CITIC Special Steel (000708 CH) with target prices of 7.70, 24.80, 8.15, and 19.29 respectively [4][35]. Core Insights - The global steel supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with a potential shift from surplus to shortage by 2029, driven by geopolitical factors and carbon reduction policies [5][6][9]. - China's steel production is projected to decrease, while demand stabilizes, particularly as the negative impact of real estate demand diminishes [5][19]. - The domestic steel industry is entering a recovery phase, supported by supply constraints and improving demand structures [7][8]. Summary by Sections Global Steel Supply-Demand Dynamics - By 2025, the global steel supply surplus is expected to narrow to 5.74%, with a significant shift in overseas demand dynamics [5][11]. - The global steel production is forecasted to decline slightly from 2026 to 2030, while demand is anticipated to grow, particularly in overseas markets [6][25]. Domestic Steel Market Outlook - China's steel demand is projected to stabilize, with real estate's share of demand dropping from 39.4% in 2020 to 13.2% by 2026 [19][22]. - The domestic steel supply is expected to continue its contraction trend, with a focus on low-carbon production methods [28][31]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of leading steel companies that meet the new industry standards, which are likely to gain competitive advantages in terms of energy consumption and carbon emissions [8][29]. - The anticipated increase in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the carbon material sector [31].