供应长期趋势偏高，需求趋向稳定恢复

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig market: Cautiously bearish [3] - Investment rating for the egg market: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pig market is in a pattern of relatively loose supply, and the fundamental situation of supply and demand has not improved fundamentally. The probability of a significant short - term rebound in pig prices is low [2] - The egg spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The increase in raw material costs supports the egg price, and the low - price egg drives the improvement of sales. The market sentiment has warmed up [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2605 contract yesterday was 11,200 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of +0.36% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of ternary live pigs was 10.35 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 10.63 yuan/kg, a change of +0.02 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.13 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.03 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On March 9, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 123.78, down 0.67 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.06 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from last Friday [1] Market Analysis - The domestic live pig spot price maintains a narrow - range shock trend, with regional price differences showing a pattern of mixed rises and falls. The prices in the northern main producing areas are mainly declining, while the spot performance in the East China region is relatively strong [2] - The current pig price is at a low - level operation range. The willingness of farmers to replenish the stock continues to weaken, and the decline of piglet prices further expands. The number of live pig sales by farmers has increased month - on - month, and the downstream consumption is weak, which restricts the sales progress [2] - After the pig price drops to a low level, factors such as the entry of secondary fattening, the increase of farmers' resistance to selling, and the increase of slaughter enterprises' low - price active segmentation and warehousing operations show signs of bottom - support [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2605 contract yesterday was 3427 yuan/500 kg, a change of +38.00 yuan from the previous trading day, with a change of +1.12% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.87 yuan/jin, a change of +0.07 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.05 yuan/jin, a change of +0.10; in Hebei, it was 2.84 yuan/jin, a change of +0.11 [3] - Inventory: On March 9, 2026, the inventory in the production link was 1.16 days, a decrease of 0.10 days from yesterday, with a decrease of 7.94%. The inventory in the circulation link was 1.42 days, unchanged from yesterday [3] Market Analysis - The egg spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The increase in raw material costs supports the egg price, and the low - price egg drives the improvement of sales. The market sentiment has warmed up [4] - In some areas, the supply of small - sized eggs is tight, which further boosts the market's bullish sentiment. As the circulation speed accelerates, the inventory in the production area has decreased, and the bullish expectation may promote further inventory digestion. The arrival pressure in the sales area is limited, and the inventory decline is relatively gentle. The short - term improvement in terminal consumption is limited, and attention should be paid to the inhibitory effect of the slight increase in egg price on sales [5] Strategy - Neutral [6]