下游采购逐步恢复，铜价受到一定支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Options: Sell put options as the main strategy [8] 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, copper prices are oscillating downward. The macro - level is suppressed by the Israel - Iran conflict and the strengthening of the US dollar. The fundamental aspect shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The acceleration of downstream resumption of work drives the recovery of demand, and the spot discount is steadily repaired. However, the current social inventory of electrolytic copper is significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the supply - side pressure persists, restricting the upward movement of prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm and the sustainability of downstream orders. [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 100,250 yuan/ton and closed at 100,190 yuan/ton, a - 0.85% change from the previous trading day's closing. In the night session, it opened at 100,230 yuan/ton and closed at 101,160 yuan/ton, a 1.28% increase from the afternoon closing of the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 100 - a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract, with an average discount of 45 yuan/ton. The SHFE 2603 contract gapped lower at the opening and then rose, closing at 99,830 yuan/ton. The contango spread between months was 310 - 170 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 350 - 210 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment in Shanghai slightly improved. The quotes of flat - copper, high - grade copper, and wet - process copper were differentiated in the morning. In the afternoon, holders raised their quotes, and the trading improved. As the delivery approaches, the spot discount is expected to narrow steadily. The downstream's bargain - hunting purchases support the market, but the high inventory restricts the repair space. It is expected that the discount will continue to narrow today [3] 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical - On May 20, domestic banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, etc. adjusted the RMB deposit interest rate table. The current deposit rate was lowered by 0.05 percentage points to 0.05%. The listed interest rates of time deposits of various terms were lowered by 0.15 - 0.25 percentage points [4] 3.2.2 Mining End - On March 6, Canadian mining developer Troilus Mining Corp. plans to issue sub - debt and other potential non - equity instruments to raise funds for its gold - copper project in Quebec. The new financing scale is expected to be between $3 billion and $4 billion and is expected to be announced within a few weeks. After the debt issuance, the funds raised by the company for restarting the mine in north - central Quebec will increase to about $1.5 billion. So far, Troilus has obtained up to $1 billion in financing from institutions such as KfW, Société Générale, and Export Development Canada for restarting the mine project, which will also produce copper as a by - product. In addition, the company sold C$173 million (about $126 million) of stocks in November last year to further supplement project funds [5] 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - On March 9, LME copper inventory accelerated its accumulation last week, with the latest inventory at 284,325 tons, hitting a new high in over a year. SHFE copper inventory continued to accumulate in the week of March 6, with a weekly increase of 8.59% to 425,145 tons, reaching a new high. The international copper inventory increased by 36 tons to 20,772 tons. The New York copper inventory first increased and then decreased, with the latest inventory at 597,938 tons [5] 3.2.4 Consumption - On March 9, the IEA stated that aluminum is a viable alternative to copper for the power industry to reduce raw material costs. The IEA predicts that under the STEPS, the global grid's copper demand will increase from 5 million tons in 2020 to 7.5 million tons in 2040, and aluminum demand will increase from 9 million tons to 12.8 million tons; under the SDS, copper demand will approach 10 million tons in 2040, and aluminum demand will rise to 16 million tons, and the demand for both will maintain a similar annual growth rate [6] 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,125 tons to 294,250 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 3,599 tons to 319,087 tons. On March 9, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 578,900 tons, a change of 17,000 tons from the previous week [6] 3.3 Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to conduct corresponding buying and selling hedging operations in the range of 100,000 yuan/ton to 103,000 yuan/ton. When the price approaches the upper and lower limits of the range, appropriately increase or decrease the proportion of buying and selling hedging [8] - For options, the main strategy is to sell put options [8]