情绪扰动盘面，氯碱波动加大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC's supply - demand fundamentals are weak, but geopolitical conflicts support the market sentiment. The cost of ethylene - based raw materials rises, and downstream开工 is recovering. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes, export order execution, and ethylene - based enterprise load changes [3] - Caustic soda's supply - demand situation has improved slightly. The export inquiry of domestic chlor - alkali products has increased, but there are concerns about future demand. Attention should be paid to export order execution, the conversion of 32% alkali to 50% alkali, and the price stability of 32% alkali. The futures price is higher than the spot price, leading to increased volatility [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 5466 yuan/ton (+190), the East China basis is 234 yuan/ton (+460), and the South China basis is 384 yuan/ton (+610) [1] - Spot prices: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5700 yuan/ton (+650), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+800) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2705 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 133 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 159 yuan/ton (+279), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 283 yuan/ton (- 294), and the PVC export profit is - 24.7 dollars/ton (- 21.5) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory is 45.8 tons (- 4.6), the social inventory is 63.6 tons (+2.0), the calcium carbide - based operation rate is 80.41% (- 1.36%), the ethylene - based operation rate is 77.24% (- 3.16%), and the overall operation rate is 79.42% (- 1.93%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 89.0 tons (+11.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2442 yuan/ton (+94), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 395 yuan/ton (- 28) [1] - Spot prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 655 yuan/ton (+21), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1110 yuan/ton (+20) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1039 yuan/ton (+66), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 563.7 yuan/ton (+65.6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 1006.66 yuan/ton (+775.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 866.79 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 55.00 tons (+0.91), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.80 tons (- 0.60), and the operation rate is 86.40% (+1.50%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 82.62% (- 0.10%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 42.46% (+18.12%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 90.09% (+1.66%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Negative factors: Since April 1st, the export tax rebate for PVC has been cancelled. India has launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, and the long - term export outlook is weak. The domestic social inventory is accumulating, and the spot supply pressure after the cancellation of March warehouse receipts is increasing [3] - Positive factors: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a reduction in the operation of overseas cracking plants, tightening the supply of ethylene - based PVC raw materials. The cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and downstream开工 is recovering. There are expectations of spring maintenance and positive macro expectations during the Two Sessions [3] Caustic Soda - Positive factors: Geopolitical conflicts have led to an expected reduction in the operation of overseas chlor - alkali plants, increasing the export inquiry of domestic chlor - alkali products. The non - aluminum industry's开工 has recovered after the festival, increasing the rigid procurement. The operation of liquid chlorine downstream has recovered, and the price has increased, reducing the cost support for caustic soda [3] - Negative factors: The alumina plant's partial maintenance has led to a slight decrease in operation, and the anti - involution in the alumina industry has dragged down the long - term demand for caustic soda. The production progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and there is inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]