光大期货软商品日报-20260310

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.75% to 64.68 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.2% to 15,285 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 15,519 lots to 749,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,425 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical conflicts continue, oil prices fluctuate greatly, and the G7 alliance plans to release strategic oil reserves. The U.S. dollar index is strong, and the price of U.S. cotton futures has moved slightly higher. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures rose and then fell. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is affected by oil prices to some extent. The increase in oil prices drives up the cost of polyester chemical fiber raw materials, and cotton, as a substitute raw material for textile production, is also supported. The spreads between cotton and its substitutes have narrowed, but are still at a high level in the past year. In the medium to long term, domestic cotton is about to be planted, and the supply - demand pattern of domestic cotton in the 2026/27 season is expected to narrow. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and may have some upside potential in the long term [1]. - For sugar, the price of raw sugar futures rose significantly last night, with the May contract closing at 14.6 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the futures price rose sharply in the morning and then fell in the afternoon, and hovered around 5,440 yuan per ton last night. The upward drive in the context of a bumper harvest mainly comes from concerns about inflation and expectations of policies. Once the regional conflict eases, the market will return to fundamental - driven. Hedging positions can seize the opportunity to enter the market, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 55, down 5; the main contract basis is 1,347, down 36. The spot price in Xinjiang is 16,465 yuan per ton, down 49; the national spot price is 16,632 yuan per ton, down 46 [2]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 7, up 2; the main contract basis is 84, up 55. The spot price in Nanning is 5,520 yuan per ton, up 130; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,520 yuan per ton, up 120 [2]. 2. Market Information - On March 9, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,647, an increase of 204 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,099 [3]. - On March 9, the arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were: 16,465 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,661 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,656 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,718 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On March 9, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.7, up 1.3 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 20, down 0.7 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 54.1, up 1.4 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 28.3, down 2.3 from the previous day [3]. - On March 9, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,520 yuan per ton, up 130 yuan from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,520 yuan per ton, up 120 yuan from the previous trading day [3]. - On March 9, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,948, a decrease of 38 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 2,264 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of sugar [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has also won many awards [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He has won relevant awards [21].