有色商品日报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated higher, with a slight loss in the spot import of refined copper in China. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict initially led to a sharp rise in oil prices and a fall in global risk assets, but later, due to the G7's expectation to stabilize oil prices and Trump's statement, market panic subsided, and copper prices rebounded. However, there is still great uncertainty in the market's recovery due to the recurrence of the US - Iran conflict and the fundamental pressure of unexpected inventory accumulation. It is advisable to take a cautious view of the later market and adopt a strategy of "buying in batches and allocating at low prices" [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the supply of alumina raw materials was blocked, and Iranian aluminum plants reduced production preventively. After the festival, northern manufacturers reduced production to cope with losses, and electrolytic aluminum plants made seasonal stockpiling. The increase in bauxite freight supported the cost of alumina, and the slight decrease in inventory led to a low - level recovery of alumina. The supply shock expectation and overseas low - inventory pressure of electrolytic aluminum conflicted with the weak domestic high - inventory reality. The geopolitical conflict is the current core focus, and the short - term trend of aluminum prices depends on the development of the conflict [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.11%, while Shanghai nickel rose 1.37%. Four nickel plants in Indonesia temporarily stopped production due to a fatal landslide. Although the price of nickel ore is rising strongly, the weekly social inventory of primary nickel has increased significantly, showing great pressure. Considering the tightening of the nickel ore quota in Indonesia, the cost is rising, and there may be short - term long - making opportunities based on the cost line, but there is also an expectation of supplementary quotas in July [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Macro aspect: The US - Iran conflict affected the market, but later the panic subsided. Inventory: LME inventory increased by 9,925 tons to 294,250 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1,360 tons to 541,085 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,599 tons to 319,087 tons, and BC copper decreased by 624 tons to 13,630 tons. Demand: Downstream orders recovered, and the purchasing sentiment increased. Strategy: Be cautious about the later market and adopt a "buy in batches and allocate at low prices" strategy [1]. Aluminum - Price: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly overnight. Inventory: The inventory of alumina decreased slightly, and the supply shock of electrolytic aluminum coexisted with high domestic inventory. Factor: The geopolitical conflict is the main factor affecting short - term aluminum prices [1][2]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel fell, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 132 tons to 287,418 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 329 tons to 53,897 tons. Event: Four nickel plants in Indonesia temporarily stopped production due to a landslide. Strategy: There may be short - term long - making opportunities based on the cost line, but be aware of the inventory pressure and the expectation of supplementary quotas [3]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market price: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,480 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper increased by 30 yuan/ton. Inventory: The total social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 17,000 tons [5]. Aluminum - Market price: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Inventory: The total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 15,000 tons, and the inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons [6]. Zinc - Market price: The main settlement price increased by 0.2%, and the spot price increased. Inventory: The social inventory increased by 4,700 tons [8]. Tin - Market price: The main settlement price decreased by 2.3%, and the spot price decreased by 19,000 yuan/ton. Inventory: The SHFE inventory decreased by 590 tons [8]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2026, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [10][16][22][28][34][41].