碳酸锂日报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 2.94% to 161,060 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 154,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 151,250 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 152,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 531 tons to 36,861 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 768 tons to 22,590 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 430 tons to 13,914 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 20 tons to 2,832 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 185 tons to 3,475 tons, and lithium extraction from recycling increased by 133 tons to 2,369 tons. The domestic production in March is expected to increase by 28% to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to increase by 19% to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 24% to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 720 tons to 99,373 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory increased by 3,736 tons to 43,757 tons, the inventory in other links decreased by 3,550 tons to 38,140 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 906 tons to 17,476 tons [3]. - From the production schedule in March, the weekly de - stocking level basically met expectations, and the market may gradually become less sensitive to high - frequency data. However, it should be noted that the decrease in the absolute quantity has led to a decrease in the social inventory turnover days to 27.9 days, which is one of the core reasons for price support. At present, the fundamentals in April are in a tight - balance state. There is no definite positive factor. On the supply side, although the shipments from Zimbabwe have been decreasing since February, which may affect production in mid - to - late April at the earliest, the large shipment data from Chile will offset some of the impact. On the demand side, due to data lag, the terminal performance is under great pressure, which is difficult to effectively boost the upstream battery sector. April is also at the end of the phased export rush. Therefore, there is still support below the price, and the price will fluctuate in the short term. A more definite positive factor is needed to stimulate the price to reach the previous high. It is still advisable to consider bottom - fishing, and attention should also be paid to the situation in Zimbabwe [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The closing price of the main futures contract was 161,060 yuan/ton on March 9, 2026, up 4,900 yuan from March 6. The closing price of the continuous contract was 148,500 yuan/ton, down 5,520 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,170 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. The prices of some lithium ores and lithium salts changed, such as the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also decreased by 500 yuan/ton. The prices of some products remained unchanged, like battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. 3.2.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. from 2024 to 2026 [19][21]. 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [26][28][30]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][35]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 to February 2026 [38][41]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to March 2026 [42].