新一轮石油危机警报解除？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The essence of this conflict is the concentrated outbreak of the reconstruction of the regional power pattern under the background of the contraction of US hegemony in the Middle East. The probability of a full - scale large - scale war is extremely low. Trump's statement of "the war is basically over" is an expected management action forced by domestic political red lines, not a substantial cease - fire. The short - term conflict is unlikely to cool down completely, and the benchmark scenario is "verbal cease - fire expectation first → short - term expectation deviates from reality → finally enter a long - term low - intensity confrontation pattern" [2]. - The impact of this conflict on the global economy and asset markets is significantly lower than the two comprehensive oil crises in the 1970s. The core constraints come from the domestic political and economic red lines in the US, the improvement of the global energy supply hedging mechanism, and the fundamental reversal of the US energy status. However, the market's linear pricing of "war ends → supply risk is removed" has obvious deviations, and there is a risk of expectation - correction fluctuations in short - term asset prices [2]. - The market has priced in the benchmark scenario of short - term local conflicts and over - priced the "war - ending expectation brought by Trump's statement", but may not have fully priced in two core risks: the risk of a second spike in oil prices due to the deviation between the cease - fire expectation and the reality of navigation/supply restoration, and the tail risk of a full - scale escalation of the conflict. There is a callback pressure on asset prices after a short - term passive rise [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The Essence of the Current Conflict and the Demands and Hard Constraints of the Participants - Iran: The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has led to a decentralized power and combat structure, making traditional military means ineffective. The new supreme leader lacks the authority of Khamenei, and different factions within the Revolutionary Guards have complex competition relationships. This decentralized structure challenges the US strategy, and there is a risk of Iran's asymmetric counter - attack [12][14][15]. - US: The core constraint of the Trump administration is the domestic gasoline price red line and the political pressure of the mid - term elections. The US has no domestic public opinion basis and financial ability for a full - scale Middle - East war. Trump's statement of "the war is basically over" is an expected management action forced by domestic political red lines, and his statement is changeable, which will be a major source of market fluctuations [16][19][23]. - Israel: Israel's core demand is to completely eliminate Iran's nuclear threat and regional military threat, and there are no rigid constraints in terms of elections, oil prices, and public opinion. It has a strong motivation to continuously escalate the war, but its actions may be restricted by the US [24]. 2. Historical Lessons: A Review of Four Rounds of Oil Crises - Core Features and Asset Performance in Previous Oil Crises: Six core laws of asset pricing are summarized, including the relationship between oil price increases and supply interruptions, the performance of gold, stocks, bonds, and the performance of energy sectors [26]. - Core Similarities and Differences between the Current Conflict and Historical Oil Crises: The core conduction logic is the same as historical oil crises, but there are five fundamental differences, which determine that the upper limit of the impact on the global economy and asset markets is significantly lower than the two comprehensive oil crises in the 1970s [28][29]. 3. Scenario Deduction of the Current Conflict - Benchmark Scenario: The conflict is unlikely to escalate into a large - scale ground war. It will go through three stages: the stage of expectation - reality deviation, the stage of diplomatic negotiation, and the stage of long - term low - intensity confrontation. Asset prices will follow the six asset - pricing laws, and there are risks such as Trump's statement reversal, passive - rise selling pressure, and navigation - repair disappointment [32][35][36]. - Tail Extreme Risk Scenario: The trigger premise is that Trump's cease - fire statement is not implemented, Israel unilaterally escalates the war, and Iran conducts asymmetric counter - attacks, leading to long - term interruption of oil supply. The war will go through three stages, and asset prices will follow the pricing laws of a comprehensive oil crisis, with risks such as the failure of Trump's statement, oil - price over - increase, and policy - tightening over - expectation [37][39][42]. - Intermediate Transition Scenario: Israel unilaterally promotes a small - scale escalation of the war, and the US refuses to be involved in a ground war. The conflict maintains a low - intensity mode, and asset price fluctuations are between the benchmark scenario and the tail extreme scenario, with risks such as ambiguous statements, losses in the volatile market, and policy swings [43][44]. 4. Global Core Risk Warnings - Trump's statement is changeable, which will cause extreme fluctuations in global asset prices [46]. - There is an extreme deviation between market expectations and reality, which will lead to significant expectation - correction in the market [46]. - Israel may take unilateral escalation actions, triggering the tail extreme scenario [46]. - Asset prices are over - adjusted and trading is irrational, with a high risk of losses from chasing rises and selling falls [46]. - The medium - and long - term pricing laws are invalid in the short - term trading stage [47]. 5. Comprehensive Judgment and Risk - Control - Oriented Strategy Recommendations - The probability of the current conflict escalating into a new round of oil crisis is low. The benchmark scenario is a long - term low - intensity confrontation pattern. In the short term, risk control should be the top priority, with strict control of positions, avoiding chasing rises and selling falls, and flexible position adjustment [48].