原油市场形势出现新变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, oil prices fluctuated significantly. The morning saw a more than 30% increase, followed by a sharp decline in the afternoon. The turning point was mainly due to G7 countries considering releasing 400 million barrels of strategic reserves. Additionally, Trump said the Iran war might end soon. If the war ends, there's no need for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, and oil and gas navigation will recover. However, although Trump's TACO expectations have increased, the war isn't completely over, so the oil market will continue to have high volatility [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The settlement price of U.S. crude oil futures was $94.77 per barrel, up $3.87 or 4.26%. The settlement price of the April diesel futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $3.5866 per gallon. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.33% at 749 yuan per barrel [1]. - Japanese Finance Minister Katahira Satsuki said that G7 energy ministers are expected to meet tonight to discuss the release of oil reserves [1]. - U.S. President Trump said the U.S. military action against Iran will "soon" end. He also mentioned that he knew oil and gas prices would rise, and the price increase was lower than his expectation. He was "disappointed" with the new Iranian leader. If Iran disrupts oil supply, the U.S. will strike harder and will lift some sanctions to lower oil prices. He also threatened Cuba and said the U.S. will transport 100 million barrels of oil from Venezuela [1]. - Trump said the U.S. will temporarily lift some oil - related sanctions to ensure sufficient oil supply and lower oil prices. The price increase was not as serious as he worried. He didn't give specific details. Last week, the U.S. issued a 30 - day temporary exemption allowing the sale of Russian oil stranded at sea to India [1]. - Russian President Putin said that oil production relying on transportation through the Strait of Hormuz may soon be completely interrupted. He also pointed out that price increases may be temporary. Russia should adjust its direction, target new markets in need of increased oil and gas supply, and is willing to cooperate with European countries on oil and gas supply if they show clear signals of stability [1]. - Bank of America abandoned its previous prediction of two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada this year. It now expects the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates unchanged until 2026. A 10% continuous increase in oil prices is expected to boost Canada's GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points and CPI growth by 0.4 percentage points in the next 12 months. The Bank of Canada is not expected to raise interest rates as price pressure will be offset by the strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar [1]. Investment Logic - Yesterday's large - scale oil price fluctuations were mainly due to G7's consideration of releasing strategic reserves and Trump's statement about the possible end of the Iran war. The oil market will maintain high volatility as the war is not over [2]. Strategy - Due to the high volatility of oil prices in the short - term affected by geopolitical situations, the risk of participating in the crude oil market is high. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [4]. Risks - Downside risk: The Middle East war eases, and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation [4]. - Upside risk: The suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz exceeds expectations [4].