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Group 1: Investment Rating - Unspecified [No relevant doc] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices have strong support at the lower end. In the short term, there are still interferences on the zinc ore supply side, and the probability of overseas smelting restart is small. Although the domestic smelting losses are continuously narrowing and the supply enthusiasm remains, the current social inventory is high. However, it is expected that the inventory inflection point is approaching. In the long term, if the recession does not occur, the consumption at home and abroad still has good expectations, and zinc prices are still expected to perform well. The overseas inventory continues to decline, and the LME premium is expected to rise [1][5] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Spot - The LME zinc spot premium is -$1.50 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -50 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -70 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,500 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On August 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,600 yuan/ton and closed at 22,480 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 78,030 lots, and the position was 80,798 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,640 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,430 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places monitored by SMM was 129,200 tons, a change of 10,000 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 77,450 tons, a change of -1,025 tons from the previous trading day [4] Group 4: Market Analysis - There are still interferences on the short - term supply side of zinc ore, such as the increase in shipping costs and concerns about Iranian zinc ore supply. The spot quotation TC of imported zinc ore is about $10 per ton. In the long - term contract, Korea Zinc signed a TC of $85 per ton with Teck Resources but increased the precious metal pricing. Due to the increase in overseas energy costs, the probability of overseas smelting restart is small. The domestic smelting losses are continuously narrowing, and the supply enthusiasm remains. The downstream consumption has entered the post - holiday resumption stage. Although the current social inventory is high, the inventory inflection point is expected to arrive. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the market's trading of recession expectations, but in the long term, if the recession does not occur, the consumption at home and abroad still has good expectations, and zinc prices are still expected to perform well. The overseas inventory continues to decline, and the LME premium is expected to rise [5] Group 5: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [6]