中辉有色观点-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Wait - and - see [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure, callback to go long [1] - Polysilicon: Low - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound, buy on dips [1] 2. Report's Core Views - Geopolitical factors such as the Iran situation and Trump's statements have a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The US dollar's weakening provides support for gold, while the uncertainty of the Iran situation makes it difficult to participate in the silver market in the short term. For non - ferrous metals, factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and inventory changes influence price trends [1][3]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, with short - term support around 1120. Silver should pay attention to support around 20000. For copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lithium carbonate, there are corresponding long - term and short - term investment strategies based on market conditions [1][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market performance: SHFE gold fell 0.07% to 1140, COMEX gold fell 0.63% to 5149. SHFE silver rose 0.07% to 21547, COMEX silver rose 3.13% to 87. Spot gold fell 0.67% to 5137.24 dollars per ounce [2]. - Basic logic: Trump's statement about the end of the war led to a weakening of the US dollar, and the gold market has "triple shocks" but the four underlying logics for the long - term bull market remain unchanged. China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months [3][4]. - Strategy recommendation: Long - term holding for gold, wait - and - see for silver, pay attention to geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1][4] Copper - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101160 yuan per ton, up 1.28%. LME copper was at 12922 dollars per ton, up 0.49%. COMEX copper was 590.05 dollars per pound, up 1.08% [5]. - Industrial logic: Global copper mine supply remains tight, copper concentrate processing fees are at a record low. Although inventory has increased significantly, the expected effective circulating inventory is tight, and the resource - security premium for copper is rising [6]. - Strategy recommendation: Buy on dips when there is a callback, industry buyers should purchase as needed, and sellers should wait for the price to rebound and sell at the upper resistance level. Bullish on the medium - to - long - term trend of copper [7] Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24425 yuan per ton, up 0.41%. LME zinc was 3326.5 dollars per ton, up 0.11% [8]. - Industrial logic: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, smelter profits are inverted, and the supply side is weakening month - on - month. The demand side is weak, and inventory is accumulating [9]. - Strategy recommendation: Hold long positions cautiously in the short term, buy on dips on medium - to - long - term callbacks. Pay attention to the demand situation and policy stimuli [10] Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of LME aluminum was 3385.5 dollars per ton, down 1.33%. The Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24950 yuan per ton, up 0.95% [11]. - Industrial logic: The short - term supply disturbance in the Middle East continues, inventory is a major factor suppressing prices, and downstream processing enterprises are gradually resuming production. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply is sufficient, and the industry's oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse fundamentally [13]. - Strategy recommendation: Go long on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operating range is [23500 - 25500] [14] Nickel - Market performance: The closing price of LME nickel was 17444 dollars per ton, down 0.03%. The Shanghai nickel main contract was 136520 yuan per ton, down 0.45%. The stainless - steel main contract was 14105 yuan per ton, down 0.70% [15]. - Industrial logic: The expectation of tightening nickel ore supply is weakened, the domestic pure - nickel social inventory remains at a high level, and stainless - steel inventory has increased significantly, suppressing prices [17]. - Strategy recommendation: Go long on dips for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless - steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, with an intraday amplitude of 15%, breaking through the 160,000 - yuan mark [19]. - Industrial logic: The supply - demand pattern remains tight, inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the cost of lithium carbonate will increase in the long term. Although the inventory - reduction rate has weakened recently, there is still a rigid support at the lower price [20]. - Strategy recommendation: Buy on dips in the range of [156000 - 170000] [21]