CMA宣布紧急燃油附加费，关注马士基3月最后一周开价意

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract EC2604 is approaching delivery, and the price - holding willingness of shipping companies and actual price adjustments should be monitored. The conflict between Israel and Iran has led shipping companies to attempt to hold prices during the off - season. CMA's implementation of an emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) will increase the valuation of near - month contracts. The current high geopolitical risks and the game between price - holding expectations and actual landing prices will amplify the volatility of the EC2604 contract. It is recommended that investors closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly [5][6]. - For the relatively peak - season contracts of June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's reopening in the first half of the year, the relatively small pressure of ultra - large container ship deliveries in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [7]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 9, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 67,535.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 102,972.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 2236.40, 2257.00, 2494.00, 2590.40, 2422.60, 1742.30, 1617.20, and 1861.00 respectively [8]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1452 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1940 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2717 US dollars/FEU. On March 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1545.46 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1121.22 points [8]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU had been delivered in 2026. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 86,000 TEU) and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (17,148 TEU) were delivered. In the future, the delivery of ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU from 2026 to 2029 will be 679,000 TEU (46 ships), 944,600 TEU (64 ships), 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively; the delivery of ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU from 2026 to 2029 will be 192,900 TEU (8 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships), and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) respectively. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [3][4]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity of China - European basic ports in the remaining 4 weeks of March was 320,700 TEU, with the capacities of WEEK11/12/13/14 being 362,300/341,900/293,100/285,400 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 324,900 TEU, with the capacities of WEEK15/16/17/18 being 361,400/239,900/404,500/294,000 TEU respectively. There were 8 blank sailings in March and 2 TBNs in April [4]. 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitically, on March 9, the Israeli Defense Forces completed a new round of air strikes on Iran, targeting multiple missile launch sites and command centers. The Houthi rebels may resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea corridor, and the reopening of the Suez Canal in the first half of the year is less likely [3][7]. - Shipping companies are trying to hold prices during the off - season. Maersk's price for the first week of the second half of March increased by 400 US dollars compared to the second week of March, and MSC's online quote for the second half of March increased by 100 US dollars/FEU compared to the first half. CMA announced an emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) starting from March 23 [5]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10%. After the outbreak of the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for peak - season contracts. It is necessary to pay attention to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports due to concerns about inflation, which will drive up China's export demand [7].