石油价格引发通胀预期，国债期货全线收跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict, inflation trading has resurfaced. LPR remains unchanged. Meanwhile, the expectation of Fed rate - cuts continues, and the increasing uncertainty of global trade adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's monthly PPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: Social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%; M2 year - on - year growth rate is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 98.72, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.14 and a decline rate of 0.14%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8864, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.034 and a decline rate of 0.49%; SHIBOR 7 - day rate is 1.42, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78%; DR007 is 1.45, with a day - on - day increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.31%; R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.13 and a decline rate of 7.46%; The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3M is 1.51, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.33%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.33% [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.32 yuan, and 111.52 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.04%, - 0.14%, - 0.21%, and - 1.11% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.040 yuan, 0.133 yuan, 0.009 yuan, and 0.350 yuan respectively [3]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - On March 9, 2026, the central bank conducted a 485 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.322%, 1.423%, 1.475%, and 1.539% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - term spread trends of treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads such as (4TS - T), (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), and (2TS - 3TF + T) [7]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][44]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [46][55]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][58]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][64]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging Strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can moderately hedge using far - month contracts [4].