成本推动上涨的氧化铝难获供需面支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The price increase of alumina driven by cost cannot be supported by supply - demand fundamentals. The Middle East event has led to a clear reduction in the supply of electrolytic aluminum, and although the absolute price has reflected supply - side disturbances, the impact on consumption has not been fully factored in. In the long - term, the shutdown in Qatar has a substantial impact on the supply side, and the rising electricity price due to the overseas power gap makes the upward space of aluminum price still promising. The price increase of alumina is mainly due to cost factors, but the overall domestic supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, with long - term pressure [1][6][8] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 25,200 yuan/ton, with a change of 750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium of East China aluminum is - 130 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 25,050 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 25,140 yuan/ton, with a change of 760 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On March 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,890 yuan/ton, closed at 24,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 395 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,860 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,750 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 792,881 lots, and the position was 219,433 lots [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of March 9, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.271 million tons, with a change of 15,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 335,828 tons, with a change of 6,201 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 454,625 tons, with a change of - 2,250 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On March 9, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,615 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,670 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,695 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2] 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On March 9, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,844 yuan/ton, closed at 2,905 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of 3.57%. The highest price reached 3,049 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,830 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 1,353,816 lots, and the position was 303,984 lots [2] 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 9, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 19,000 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 62,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 83,600 tons [4] 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,857 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 544 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Middle East event continues, and the supply side has shown a clear reduction, with the LME 0 - 3 premium rising rapidly. The absolute price has reflected supply - side disturbances, but the impact on consumption has not been traded. If the Middle East crisis continues, rising energy costs will impact overseas consumption, and the rapidly rising aluminum price still exerts pressure on domestic price transmission. In the short - term, if the Middle East crisis eases, there may be a retracement of the previous risk premium. In the long - term, the shutdown in Qatar has a substantial impact on the supply side, and the rising electricity price trend due to the overseas power gap remains unchanged, so the upward space of aluminum price is still promising [6] 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, 2,100 tons were traded at the ex - factory price of 2,810 yuan/ton in Guangxi. The price increase of alumina is mainly due to cost factors. On the one hand, the caustic soda price has continuously reached the daily limit; on the other hand, the freight of Australian alumina to China has reached 37 US dollars/ton, with a cumulative increase of 16 US dollars/ton, and the freight will also affect Guinean bauxite, with the sea freight quoted at 28 US dollars/ton. The overall domestic supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory is still rising. The pressure of expiring warehouse receipts in the recent three months is not large, and the inter - month spread is conducive to alleviating the release of warehouse receipt pressure. There are situations where alumina plants make spot purchases to supplement long - term supply due to production disturbances. In the short - term, the pressure on the domestic spot market is not large, but the surplus contradiction continues to accumulate and there is still long - term pressure [7][8]