地缘冲突引发市场巨震，镍不锈钢V型反转

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, although demand is still weak, the supply - side is supported by Indonesian nickel ore policies, leading to rising nickel ore prices and high production costs for ferronickel and electrolytic nickel, making the price bottom relatively stable. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts and the macro - environment are the main drivers of nickel price movements [2][4]. - For the stainless - steel variety, the price trend is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upside space. Geopolitical conflicts and the macro - environment are the main drivers of price movements in the short term [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 137,000 yuan/ton and closed at 136,520 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.16% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 630,657 (+249,124) lots, and the open interest was 208,527 (-4,952) lots [1]. Trend Analysis - Due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the Shanghai nickel main contract plunged at the opening of the day session, reaching an intraday low of 132,350 yuan/ton within 15 minutes with a decline of over 3%. Then, due to the easing of the US stance, the price rebounded to near the opening price and then fluctuated until the close. Fundamentally, demand is weak, but the supply - side is supported by Indonesian policies, and nickel ore prices are rising [2]. - In the nickel ore market, the overall market is stable. In the Philippines, the main mining area is affected by weather, and the supply is uncertain. Mines' quotes remain high. In Indonesia, the supply of the domestic nickel ore market is tight, and the domestic premium remains high [2]. Spot Market - Jinchuan Group's ex - factory price premium in Shanghai converged, and the spot premium of Jinchuan resources declined. Other brands' spot premiums were stable or rising. The trading volume improved when the nickel price fell in the morning and then declined as the price rose. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,897 (+329) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 287,418 (-132) tons [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations and pay attention to macro risks. Cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not recommended [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 9, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,105 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 171,844 (+92,808) lots, and the open interest was 100,023 (-4,171) lots [4][5]. Trend Analysis - The stainless - steel price is mainly influenced by nickel prices. Geopolitical conflicts and macro - factors are the main drivers of price fluctuations. On the supply side, the crude steel production schedule in March increased month - on - month, and the supply pressure increased. On the consumption side, consumption was poor after the Spring Festival, and social inventory continued to accumulate, suppressing price rebounds [5]. Spot Market - The spot price fluctuated with the futures price, first falling and then rising. The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and trading was light. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,450 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,400 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 310 - 510 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was 1,088.0 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not recommended [6].