地缘冲突叠加宏观影响，碳酸锂盘面高位宽度震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing high - level wide - range oscillations due to geopolitical conflicts and macro - impacts. In March, the supply and demand are both strong, the lithium carbonate industry maintains a de - stocking trend, and prices are supported. However, the terminal demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage still needs verification, and the current market is greatly affected by market sentiment [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 9, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 150,000 yuan/ton and closed at 161,060 yuan/ton, with a 2.94% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 402,478 lots, and the open interest was 330,671 lots (333,903 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 36,861 lots, a change of 531 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 150,000 - 159,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 500 yuan/ton from the previous day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 147,000 - 155,500 yuan/ton, also a change of - 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,200 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - The spot inventory was 99,373 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 17,476 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 906 tons; the downstream inventory was 43,757 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,736 tons; other inventories were 38,140 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,550 tons. The overall inventory is still in a de - stocking pattern [1] Consumption End - According to Baichuan data, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 16.47% month - on - month, ternary materials by 21.45%, lithium cobaltate by 39.53%, lithium manganate by 6.05%, and lithium hexafluorophosphate by 10.44%. In March, the demand market showed signs of improvement. The demand for power batteries is gradually recovering, and the energy storage field continues to drive, increasing the activity of the downstream market. The "rush - to - export" effect of the export tax - rebate policy adjustment still exists, and some enterprises are accelerating production to deliver overseas orders. After the price decline, the procurement willingness of downstream material factories has increased, and market transactions have improved compared to last week [2] Strategy - The demand for lithium carbonate in materials and battery cells continues to grow rapidly, leading to continuous inventory de - stocking, but the terminal demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage still needs verification. The current market is greatly affected by market sentiment, and short - term interval operations are recommended. For single - side trading, short - term waiting and watching is the main strategy, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]