散单成交无明显改善，铅价仍显震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand but slow inventory reduction. The losses in the secondary lead sector leading to lower - than - expected resumption of production support the lead price. However, before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract next week, the inventory transfer and delivery by holders will bring pressure on the increase of visible inventory. The lead price is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, trading in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations based on this range [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 9, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.91/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 9, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,740 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 55,371 lots, a change of 16,108 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 55,892 lots, a change of -1,783 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,815 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,655 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,710 yuan/ton and closed at 16,720 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM 1 lead price in the Shanghai market was reported at 16,680 - 16,790 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2604 contract. After the SHFE lead price hit a low and rebounded, holders quoted prices according to the market. As the delivery approached, the circulating supply in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions increased. The ex - factory supply of electrolytic lead refineries was mostly sold at a discount, and some holders had large differences in selling. The mainstream origin quotes were at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead. The circulating supply in the secondary lead market was limited, and refineries sold at a firm price. The secondary refined lead quotes were at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 25 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. At the same time, the quotes for imported crude lead increased, downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see, and the purchases were relatively scattered, with no obvious improvement in the spot market transactions [2] Inventory - On March 9, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 74,000 tons, a change of 6,500 tons from the same period last week. As of March 10, the LME lead inventory was 284,875 tons, a change of -1,025 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The lead price is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, trading in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations based on this range [4] Options - The option strategy is to sell wide straddles [5]