多晶硅价格反弹，基本面仍然弱势

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a supply-demand dual-weak pattern, and the price is supported in the medium to long term. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue weak oscillation. The cost support is weak, demand expectations are not met, and there are inventory and market sentiment issues [8] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 9, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,805 yuan/ton and closed at 8,670 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton (0.7%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 251,171 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on March 8, 2026, was 21,340 lots, a change of 504 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 (50) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 (100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 (100) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of March 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [1] - The demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees after the Spring Festival, and most inquiries were tentative [1] - In early March, some idle production capacities in Xinjiang resumed production, and there were plans for further resumptions within the month, leading to a slight increase in supply [1] Group 4: Industrial Silicon Strategy - Unilateral: Short-term range operation [2] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4] Group 5: Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 9, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and rose, opening at 41,500 yuan/ton and closing at 42,700 yuan/ton, a 3.15% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 36,990 (35,210 the previous day) lots, and the trading volume was 19,269 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon decreased. N - type material was 44.80 - 53.00 (-0.10) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 45.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [5] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.80, a -0.10% change month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory was 29.01 GW, a -6.60% change month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 18,800.00 tons, a -5.05% change week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 11.08 GW, a -2.38% change week - on - week [5] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.05 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.37 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.14 (0.00) yuan/piece [5] - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.43 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.41 (-0.01) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.43 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6][7] - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.74 - 0.76 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.76 - 0.78 (0.00) yuan/W [7] - On March 7, Hubei Energy announced that the photovoltaic power generation in February 2026 was 365 million kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. The downstream photovoltaic industry demand for polysilicon is still expected to decline, and the increase in polysilicon price on that day had no obvious positive factors, with a weak fundamental situation [7] Group 6: Polysilicon Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain oscillation in the short term [8] - Inter - period: None [8] - Cross - variety: None [8] - Spot - futures: None [8] - Options: None [8]