地方债周度跟踪：今年新增地方债限额与上年持平-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased compared to the previous period, but it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is shortened. The issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds compared to the same-term national bonds changed, and the full - field multiples increased. [2] - Compared with the same period in 2024 and 2025, the issuance progress of new general bonds this year is slower, while the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. [2] - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026 is 936.2 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 302.7 billion yuan. [2] - The special new special bonds issued in the current period are 560 million yuan, and the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts are 11.26 billion yuan and 0 yuan respectively. [2] - The spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased significantly. [2] - Currently, local government bonds with a term of 10Y and above still have certain cost - effectiveness, but the potential pressure of increased bond supply after the Two Sessions should be vigilant. [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased and the Weighted Issuance Term Shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (March 2 - 8, 2026) is 272.484 billion yuan (256.420 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance in the next period (March 9 - 15, 2026) is 135.545 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 17.95 years, shorter than 21.76 years in the previous period. [2][9] - The issuance spreads of 10/30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds in the current period increased to 17.45BP/decreased to 21.00BP, and the full - field multiples increased compared to the previous period. [2][12] - As of March 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 26.9% and 20.5% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 29.3% and 20.9%. Compared with the same period in 2024 and 2025, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower, while that of new special bonds is faster. [2][16] - As of March 6, 2026, 24 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026 is 936.2 billion yuan, including 302.7 billion yuan of new special bonds. [2][22] - The special new special bonds issued in the current period are 560 million yuan, and the cumulative issuance in 2026 is 10.55 billion yuan; the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts have a cumulative issuance of 79.23 billion yuan, with a progress of 39.6%; the special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts have a cumulative issuance of 360 million yuan. [2][18] 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and National Bonds Narrowed for 10Y and Widened for 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased Significantly - As of March 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds are 19.90BP and 20.88BP respectively, narrowing by 2.57BP and 0.14BP compared to February 28, 2026, and are at the 52.60% and 80.00% historical quantiles since 2023. [2][33] - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 1.10%, a significant increase compared to 0.42% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qinghai, Heilongjiang, and Jilin are better than the national average. [2][37]