黑色金属数据日报-20260310

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral trading returns to a wait - and - see approach; focus on positive arbitrage entry opportunities when the basis partially falls; pay attention to the fluctuation range of the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Adopt a short - long strategy on dips [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral trading is on a temporary wait - and - see; consider establishing long - spot positive arbitrage positions in batches [5][7] - Iron Ore: Wait for the conflict to ease and the crude oil price to fall back before shorting iron ore [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: After the release of market sentiment, be cautious about chasing high prices. The black sector currently has weak supply and demand. In the future, it may enter a stage of high supply and demand. The spillover effect of the energy - chemical sector may drive up coal prices, but after many varieties hit the daily limit on Monday, chasing long positions requires caution [2] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Due to the continuation of geopolitical conflicts, the prices are supported by supply disruptions and cost increases. However, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, high inventory, and strong resistance to price increases. The basis is weakening, so it is not recommended to chase high prices [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Geopolitical conflicts affect the market. The futures market is dominated by geopolitical themes. Market volatility is expected to intensify. Speculators can use call option strategies, and industrial clients can consider establishing long - spot positive arbitrage positions [5] - Iron Ore: With the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, risk assets fluctuate more. It is not recommended to short black varieties, especially coal. There is a certain inventory replenishment expectation, but port inventory is a pressure factor. Wait for the conflict to ease to short iron ore [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On March 9, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3147 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan, 1.29%), HC2610 at 3282 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan, 1.39%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3119 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan, 1.30%), HC2605 at 3270 yuan/ton (up 51 yuan, 1.58%) [1] - Spreads and Ratios: On March 9, the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread was 151 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.98 (down 0.02), etc [1] Spot Market - Steel Products: On March 9, Shanghai rebar was at 3230 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3280 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), etc. The billet - steel price difference was 270 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: On March 9, Ganqimaodu coking fine coal was at 1175 yuan/ton (unchanged), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) at 1480 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - Iron Ore: On March 9, Rizhao Port PB fines were at 779 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan), Shou'an Port Super Special fines at 660 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan) [1] Basis - On March 9, the HC main contract basis was 10 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), the RB main contract basis was 111 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan), etc [1]