日度策略参考-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term. The mid - to long - term strategy for some commodities can consider building long positions by leveraging the discount advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The energy price increase raises inflation risks and suppresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the unexpected February non - farm payrolls in the US increase the risk of economic stagflation, which also supports the prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts have a wide - ranging impact on the commodity market, affecting supply, demand, and cost factors of various commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - Precious Metals: Affected by factors such as inflation risk, economic stagflation risk, and geopolitical games, precious metals are expected to oscillate in the short term, and platinum - palladium prices may fluctuate within a range [1]. - Base Metals - Copper: Due to the deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories, copper prices are running weakly [1]. - Aluminum: The supply disturbances in the Middle East and the increase in energy costs are expected to drive aluminum prices to be strong. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbances in the Middle East [1]. - Alumina: The operating capacity has slightly declined, but the inventory has further accumulated, with a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The concerns about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - Nickel: The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and nickel prices may oscillate at a high level, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material prices have risen after the festival, and the steel mills' production schedule in March has increased significantly. The social inventory has slightly decreased. The stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Tin: Tin prices are highly volatile and oscillating. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - Ferrous Metals - Steel Products - Rebar: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the price is expected to oscillate. After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The price has significant upward pressure, but due to geopolitical conflicts, it is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward trend. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive factors [1]. - Iron Ore: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price [1]. - Silicon Iron: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the expected reduction in supply and geopolitical conflicts provide cost support [1]. - Glass: The cost is supported by the increase in energy prices due to geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand are weak in the short term [1]. - Soda Ash: It mainly follows the trend of glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand will be more relaxed in the medium term, with price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The first round of spot price cuts has begun, but the market has already priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The market is waiting to see, and industrial players can establish cash - and - carry positions in the 05 contract on rebounds [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, which in turn affects the prices of related energy and chemical products [1]. - Fuel Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors such as the Middle East conflict, the market sentiment is positive, and the risk appetite of funds has recovered [1]. - Asphalt: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is relatively small, but the price is affected by the cost transmission of crude oil [1]. - Natural Rubber: After the festival, the downstream demand is gradually recovering, the basis difference has expanded to a high level in the same period, and the raw material cost has strong support [1]. - BR Rubber: Due to the impact of the shutdown of upstream production, the inventory may turn into a deficit. The cost of butadiene has strong support, and the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants is in a loss state, with an increasing expectation of maintenance and production reduction [1]. - PTA: Geopolitical factors lead to a strong expectation of crude oil prices. Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply, and the supply of PX is tight, which affects the downstream polyester industry [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Due to the reduction of raw materials caused by geopolitical factors, domestic ethylene glycol plants have seen a sharp increase in prices [1]. - Styrene: The overseas pure benzene and styrene markets are strongly rising due to multiple disturbances on the supply side, and the spot supply of styrene is extremely tight [1]. - Methanol: The import from Iran is affected by geopolitical conflicts, but the domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a historical high [1]. - PE and PP: Geopolitical factors drive up the price of crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak [1]. - PVC: In 2026, the global production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the geopolitical conflict has an impact on the raw material supply, with a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - LPG: The price is affected by factors such as the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the CP price, and the domestic and overseas demand. The basis difference is expected to repair and expand, and the demand side is short - term bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the inventory is high, but the price is expected to rise gradually with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar market is in a state of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar supply is also relatively abundant. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have limited fluctuations, with a pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal: The Middle East conflict supports the prices of soybean and soybean meal. The short - term focus should be on international situation dynamics, and unilateral operations should be cautious [1]. - Pulp: The fundamental situation of pulp futures is weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - Logs: The spot price of logs has risen, and the arrival volume in February has decreased. The external quotation is expected to rise, providing upward momentum for the market [1]. - Livestock: The recent spot price has stabilized, the demand is supported, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1].