蛋白数据日报-20260310

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about the increase in shipping and planting costs. The war risk premium supports the soybean and soybean meal futures. In the short term, it is recommended to monitor international situation dynamics. Given the unpredictability of the war's duration, cautious operation is advised for unilateral trading [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Daily - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal on March 9, including the basis of the main soybean meal contract in different regions (Dalian, Tianjin, etc.), the basis of 43% soybean meal spot, and the basis of rapeseed meal spot. It also shows the spreads such as M5 - M9, RM5 - 9, and M5 - RM5 [3]. - The report presents the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong, as well as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans and the import soybean gross profit on the futures market [4]. Inventory Data - The report shows the inventory data of soybeans in Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises, and the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills [5][7][8]. 开机 and压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The report provides data on the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major domestic oil mills, as well as the downstream consumption rate and delivery volume [9]. International Situation and Market Analysis - In Brazil, the soybean harvest progress has slowed down due to recent rainy weather. As of February 28, the national soybean harvest was 41.7%, compared with 8.8% in the same period last year. The FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans is under pressure due to the bumper harvest, while the CNF premium remains relatively stable, but there is still a short - term risk of rising shipping costs. - In Argentina, the growth of soybeans has improved. As of March 4, the proportion of soybeans in good condition was 30% (last week's value was 29%, last year's value was 31%), normal was 4% (last week's value was 15%, last year's value was 19%), and fair or poor was 26% (last week's value was 28%, last year's value was 20%). - The sharp rise in crude oil prices is beneficial to the demand for biodiesel, supporting the expectation of US soybean crushing. - In China, the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills are still at a high level, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [11].