信用债周报：收益率保持下行，信用利差分化-20260310

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from March 2nd to March 8th, most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) increased, with an overall change range of -1 BP to 6 BP. Due to the low - base effect, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, while the issuance amounts of other varieties increased. The net financing of credit bonds increased, with corporate bond net financing decreasing and that of other varieties increasing. Corporate bond net financing was negative, while that of other varieties was positive. [1][11][55] - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased on a month - on - month basis, with the trading volume of each variety increasing. The yields of credit bonds all declined. The credit spreads of each variety were differentiated, showing a general widening trend at the short - to - medium end and a narrowing trend at the long end. In terms of quantiles, the spreads of most varieties were at historical lows, with the quantiles of 7 - year varieties being relatively high. [1][15][55] - From the perspective of absolute return, the relatively strong allocation demand will drive the credit bond market to continue its recovery. Although fluctuations and adjustments are inevitable under the influence of both positive and negative factors, the conditions for a full - scale bear market in the credit bond market are still insufficient. In the long run, future yields are still on a downward path, and the idea of increasing allocations during adjustments is still feasible. [1][55] - From the perspective of relative return, the compression space of credit spreads at each maturity is currently insufficient, and the cost - effectiveness of allocating most varieties is not high. The coupon strategy in the current allocation thinking should remain cautious, while the trading thinking can be moderately optimistic. When selecting bonds, the focus should still be on the changing trend of interest - rate bonds while paying attention to the coupon value of individual bonds. [1][55] - The central and local governments continue to actively optimize real - estate policies, and the supporting policies are continuously strengthening, actively releasing rigid and improved housing demand, which has played a positive role in promoting the stabilization of the real - estate market. Although the real - estate market is currently in the transition period between old and new models, with the effectiveness of various policies to stabilize the real - estate market, the market is moving towards stabilization. [2][58] - For real - estate bonds, the sales recovery process will have a significant impact on bond valuations. As the market shows signs of stabilization, funds with higher risk appetite can consider early layout, especially focusing on enterprises with outstanding performance in new financing and sales recovery. The allocation focus should still be on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private - enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. [2][58] - For urban investment bonds, under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of default of urban investment bonds is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety in the credit bond market. Under the strict supervision of promoting the clearance of local financing platforms in an effective and orderly manner, the reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating, and attention should be paid to the opportunities for the reform and transformation of "entity - type" financing platforms. [2][58] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From March 2nd to March 8th, a total of 334 credit bonds, including corporate bonds, corporate - issued bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes, were issued, with a total issuance amount of 263.087 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 177.64%. The net financing of credit bonds was 79.394 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 145.668 billion yuan. [11] - Specifically, corporate bonds had zero issuance, with a net financing of - 12.849 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 10.344 billion yuan. Corporate - issued bonds had 127 issuances, with an issuance amount of 101.718 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 255.45%, and a net financing of 46.670 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 82.174 billion yuan. Medium - term notes had 102 issuances, with an issuance amount of 74.731 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 305.05%, and a net financing of 11.835 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 49.080 billion yuan. Commercial paper had 77 issuances, with an issuance amount of 68.448 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 51.53%, and a net financing of 29.020 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 15.901 billion yuan. Private placement notes had 28 issuances, with an issuance amount of 18.190 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 621.54%, and a net financing of 4.718 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.859 billion yuan. [11] 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the NAFMII increased, with an overall change range of -1 BP to 6 BP. By maturity, the interest rate of 1 - year varieties changed from 0 BP to 2 BP, that of 3 - year varieties from 0 BP to 6 BP, that of 5 - year varieties from -1 BP to 3 BP, and that of 7 - year varieties from -1 BP to 2 BP. By rating, the interest rate of key AAA - rated and AAA - rated varieties changed from 0 BP to 2 BP, that of AA + - rated varieties from -1 BP to 4 BP, that of AA - rated varieties from 2 BP to 6 BP, and that of AA - - rated varieties from -1 BP to 4 BP. [13] 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From March 2nd to March 8th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 915.999 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 76.45%. The trading volumes of corporate bonds, corporate - issued bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 17.907 billion yuan, 363.026 billion yuan, 328.115 billion yuan, 151.917 billion yuan, and 55.034 billion yuan respectively, with the trading volumes of all varieties increasing. [15] 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year varieties widened, while those of 5 - year and 7 - year varieties narrowed. [18] - For corporate bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were also differentiated. Specifically, the 1 - year credit spreads widened; for 3 - year varieties, the credit spreads of AA + - rated and above widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; the 5 - year and 7 - year credit spreads narrowed. [28] - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year varieties widened, while those of 5 - year and 7 - year varieties narrowed. [32] 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes: In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread of AA + medium - and short - term notes widened by 0.28 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.55 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 0.52 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread is at a historical low, at the 19.8% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread is at a historical low, at the 18.4% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread is at a low - to - medium historical level, at the 33.4% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the spreads of (AA - )-(AAA), (AA)-(AAA), and (AA + )-(AAA) for 3 - year medium - and short - term notes remained the same as the previous period. Currently, (AA - )-(AAA) is at a historical low, at the 1.6% quantile, (AA)-(AAA) is at a historical low, at the 11.3% quantile, and (AA + )-(AAA) is at a low level, at the 4.0% quantile. [39] - For corporate bonds: In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread of AA + corporate bonds widened by 0.17 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 0.04 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 0.69 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread is at a low - to - medium historical level, at the 21.8% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread is at a historical low, at the 9.5% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread is at a low - to - medium historical level, at the 24.8% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year corporate bonds narrowed by 2.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 2.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 0.1% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 7.4% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 5.4% quantile. [45] - For urban investment bonds: In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread of AA + urban investment bonds widened by 1.32 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 2.11 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 2.90 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread is at a low - to - medium historical level, at the 20.2% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread is at a historical low, at the 8.3% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread is at a low - to - medium historical level, at the 34.8% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year urban investment bonds narrowed by 0.01 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 0.99 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 0.99 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 3.5% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 1.4% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread is at a historical low, at the 2.2% quantile. [48] 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustments and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - According to iFinD statistics, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments from March 2nd to March 8th. [52] 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - In terms of bond defaults, according to iFinD statistics, there were no defaults of credit bonds issued by any issuer from March 2nd to March 8th. [53] - In terms of bond extensions, according to iFinD statistics, there were no extensions of credit bonds issued by any issuer from March 2nd to March 8th. [53] 3.4 Investment Views - The investment views are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the trends of the primary and secondary markets of credit bonds, the analysis from the perspectives of absolute and relative returns, and the investment suggestions for real - estate bonds and urban investment bonds. [1][55][58]