2026年2月价格数据点评：CPI同比超预期回升，PPI同比降幅进一步收窄

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - CPI rebounded more than expected in February 2026, mainly due to the combination of the lunar new year month shift, a longer Spring Festival holiday, and the release of consumer demand. The service price increase had a significant impact on the CPI rebound [3]. - PPI maintained a rising trend month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline further narrowed. It is expected to enter a "positive growth" phase, which is one of the expected differences in 2026. The rise is driven by input factors and the comprehensive rectification of anti - involution [4]. - The recovery of prices is expected to form the fundamental basis for the upward movement of bond yields in 2026. The current "potential inflation" of 2% may become the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield [5]. - The long - end yield rose significantly on March 9, 2026. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2.3bp to 1.81% [6]. - It is expected that the target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 2.1 February Price Data Focus - CPI: In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year (previous value +0.2%), and 1.0% month - on - month (previous value +0.2%). Core CPI increased by 0.7% month - on - month (previous value +0.3%) and 1.8% year - on - year (previous value +0.8%). The CPI rebound was mainly due to the Spring Festival factors, with service prices rising 1.6%, and the increase was 1.5pct higher than that in January, affecting the CPI year - on - year increase by about 0.75pct [3]. - PPI: In February 2026, PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month (previous value +0.4%), and decreased by 0.9% year - on - year (previous value - 1.4%). Since October 2025, PPI has been in an upward channel for 5 consecutive months. The rise in PPI is due to the upward transmission of non - ferrous metals and crude oil prices, and the growth of computing power demand. The narrowing of the year - on - year decline is due to the continuous effectiveness of the domestic "anti - involution" policy [4]. 2.2 Market Performance - Affected by the rise in oil prices and the unexpected recovery of inflation data, on March 9, 2026, the long - end yield rose significantly, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2.3bp to 1.81% [6]. 2.3 Bond Market Views - Fundamentals: The falsification of the expectation that economic recovery falls short of expectations, combined with the possible loose credit and loose fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026, will accelerate the cycle recovery [7]. - Monetary Policy: If there is a loose monetary policy (such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, bond purchases, etc.), similar to 2025, the yield may decline briefly and then rise [7]. - Inflation: It is expected that inflation will recover, and attention should be paid to whether the month - on - month increase of PPI can remain positive [7]. - Funds Rate: If the month - on - month inflation continues to rise, there is a possibility of tightening funds, and the short - end bond yield will also start to rise [7]. - Real Estate: Real estate is not the main means of stabilizing growth this time. Similar to the situation in the United States after 2008, real estate is a lagging indicator. It may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [7]. - Bonds: It is expected that the target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [7].