2月春节停机供应下滑,盈利改善
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-10 07:46

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - In February, the price of hardwood pulp decreased, while the prices of cultural paper and white cardboard stabilized, leading to a recovery in profitability. It is expected that the supply of wood pulp will increase, with demand initially decreasing before rising, and the price of white paper gradually transmitting, while the price of black paper is expected to rise [2][3] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices of cultural paper remain stable, with profitability recovering. As of February 27, the average market price for 70g hardwood high-white double glue paper was 4725 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and down 12.76% year-on-year [7] - Supply and demand dynamics show a decrease in production and an expansion of supply-demand discrepancies to high levels due to the Spring Festival holiday, with demand dropping more than supply [10] - Profitability has improved as costs have decreased while prices remained stable, with the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper at -9.63%, up 1.54 percentage points month-on-month [18] White Cardboard - Prices are stable, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4269 RMB/ton, up 0.02% month-on-month and down 1.13% year-on-year [20] - The supply-demand gap continues to expand, with production and demand both declining due to the Spring Festival, but the drop in demand was greater than that of supply [22] - Profitability has increased, with the gross margin for white cardboard at 9.11%, up 1.11 percentage points month-on-month due to a decrease in raw material costs [31] Boxboard and Corrugated Paper - Prices for boxboard have increased, with the average market price at 3532 RMB/ton, down 1.29% month-on-month and down 5.73% year-on-year [32] - The supply-demand gap has increased, with supply pressure being low due to unexpected production halts during the Spring Festival [35] - Profitability has improved, with the gross margin for corrugated paper at 5.24%, up 1.24 percentage points month-on-month, as the price decline was less than the decline in costs [43] Waste Paper - The price of waste paper has decreased, with the average market price for waste yellow board paper at 1515 RMB/ton, down 3.69% month-on-month and up 4.67% year-on-year [45] - The supply of waste paper has increased, leading to a decline in prices, with expectations of a rebound in prices later in the year [47] Wood Chips - Domestic wood chip procurement has decreased, with procurement in Shandong down 43.31% month-on-month and 47.36% year-on-year [51] - Inventory levels for wood chips have also declined significantly [53] Wood Pulp - The market for wood pulp has seen a general decline in prices, with needle pulp performing weakly while foreign hardwood pulp prices have risen [55]

2月春节停机供应下滑,盈利改善 - Reportify