固定收益部市场日报-20260310

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Asia IG space recovered and tightened 5bps, though there were still profit - taking flows on JP FRNs [4] - China appears to be edging out of deflation, but breaking the deflation spiral durably would require sustained fiscal expansion and demand - side stimulus. The PBOC is expected to utilize its structural monetary tools in the near term and lower the interest rate and RRR by 10bps and 50 bps by the end of 2Q26 as the real estate market continues to soften [4][20][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance 3.1.1 Bond Price Movements - Yesterday, benchmark POE corporate and financial names across CN/HK/JP/KR traded 5 - 7bps wider, higher betas like FRESHK/ZHOSHK widened 20 - 30bps, and 4 - 6yr FRNs issued recently like HSBC/SUMIBK/SUMITR saw selling flows [2] - Various quasi - sovereign bonds in KR and LINREI/HKE in HK widened only 1 - 5bps, NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex were 0.1 - 1.3pts lower, FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.1pts [2] - In Chinese properties, FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 29 were down by 0.1 - 0.5pt, LNGFOR 27 - 32 dropped 1.9 - 2.6pts after profit warning [2] - In SE Asian space, PTTGC Perps were down 1.3 - 1.8pts, TOPTB 6.1 Perp lost 1.3pts, GLPSPs dived 1.8 - 2.8pts [2] - In JP space, long - end SOFTBKs leaked 1.2 - 1.4pts, Japanese and Yankee AT1s and insurance subs dropped by 1.0 - 2.0pts [2] - In the Middle East, FABUH/BSFR/ARAMCO were 0.2 - 0.7pt lower [2] - This morning, the new ICBCAS Float 29 tightened 1bp from RO at SOFR+38, Asia IG space recovered and tightened 5bps, GLPSP 4.25/4.6 Perps recovered 1.3 - 1.4pts, NWDEVL 10.131 Perp/FAEACO 12.814 Perp/LNGFOR 32 were 0.6 - 0.7pt lower [4] 3.1.2 Top Performers and Underperformers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TTMTIN 4.35 06/09/26 | 99.6 | 1.7 | GARUDA 6 1/2 12/28/31 | 89.8 | - 2.9 | | CNOOC 5 3/4 01/26/41 | 109.7 | 1.2 | GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP | 64.6 | - 2.8 | | FAEACO 12.814 PERP | 82.3 | 1.1 | LNGFOR 3.85 01/13/32 | 72.9 | - 2.6 | | CHIOLI 5.35 11/15/42 | 96.0 | 0.9 | FOSUNI 6.8 09/09/29 | 96.5 | - 2.4 | | YANTZE 3.2 10/16/49 | 77.4 | 0.9 | GLPSP 4.6 PERP | 61.7 | - 2.4 | [5] 3.2 Macro News - S&P (+0.83%), Dow (+0.50%) and Nasdaq (+1.38%) were higher on Monday, Brent and West Texas Intermediate both plunged 10% to less than USD90 a barrel, Japan's 4Q25 GDP increased by +0.3% qoq, higher than the market expectation of +0.1% qoq, UST yield bull flattened on Monday with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.56%/3.71%/4.12%/4.72% [7] 3.3 Bond Issuance 3.3.1 Asia Pacific - Asia Pacific Gross USD bonds issuance increased 24.6% yoy in 2M26. In Feb'26, it increased by 29.3% yoy to USD21.7bn. Japan (USD10.0bn), South Korea (USD4.7bn) and China (USD3.8bn) were top issuers. 65.5% of the gross issuance amount were IGs. By sector, financials (59.5%), sovereigns (16.1%) and materials (6.9%) were top issuers. Cumulatively in 2M26, it rose 24.6% yoy to USD72.1bn, with Japan (USD20.9bn), South Korea (USD15.1bn) and China (USD9.4bn) as top issuers, and 81.4% of the amount were IGs. By sector, financials (64.7%), sovereigns (12.4%) and utilities (5.5%) were top issuers [8] 3.3.2 Asia ex - JP, AU & NZ - Gross USD issuance of Asia ex - JP, AU & NZ rose 22.1% yoy to USD42.2bn in 2M26. In Feb'26, it increased by 47.4% yoy to USD11.2bn. South Korea (USD4.7bn), China (USD3.8bn) and Thailand (USD1.0bn) were top issuers. 46.2% of the gross issuance amount were IGs. By sector, financials (44.0%), sovereigns (31.2%) and communications (8.9%) were top issuers. Cumulatively, South Korea (USD15.1bn), China (USD9.4bn) and Indonesia (USD4.2bn) were top issuers, and 73.0% of the amount were IGs. By sector, financials (47.5%), sovereigns (21.2%) and utilities (8.3%) were top issuers [9] 3.3.3 China - Gross USD issuance of China increased 2.7% yoy in 2M26 to USD9.4bn. In Feb'26, it totaled USD3.8bn, decreased 12.1% yoy. IGs, HYs, and unrated contributed 65.9%, 20.9% and 13.2% of the amount respectively. By sector, financials (64.5%), metals & mining (13.2%) and LGFVs (12.8%) were top issuers. Cumulatively, IGs, HYs, and unrated contributed 65.5%, 16.5% and 18.0% of the amount respectively. By sector, financials (58.6%), communications (15.9%) and real estate (10.8%) were top issuers [10] 3.3.4 Middle East - Gross USD issuance of the Middle East increased 33.9% yoy to USD67.4bn in 2M26. In Feb'26, it decreased by 53.7% yoy to USD10.9bn. The UAE (USD4.9bn), Turkey (USD3.8bn) and Qatar (USD1.6bn) were top issuers. 14.9% of the amount were IGs, 20.2% were HYs, and 64.9% were NR. By sector, sovereigns (48.5%), financials (30.4%), and real estate (10.1%) were top issuers. Cumulatively, Saudi Arabia (USD27.1bn), the UAE (USD11.6bn) and Turkey (USD10.9bn) were top issuers, 65.6% of the amount were IGs, 18.7% were HYs, and 15.6% were NR. By sector, sovereigns (43.6%), financials (32.2%) and energy (8.4%) were top issuers [13] 3.3.5 Dim Sum Bonds - Dim Sum bonds issuance dropped 30.3% yoy to RMB157.8bn in 2M26. In Feb'26, it was RMB94.3bn, decreased 32.4% yoy. China (RMB67.0bn), US (RMB10.7bn) and Indonesia (RMB9.3bn) were top issuers. 10.5% of the amount were IGs. By sector, sovereigns (77.7%), financials (20.5%) and real estate (0.7%) were top issuers. Cumulatively, China (RMB95.6bn), US (RMB25.3bn) and UK (RMB9.8bn) were top issuers, 9.7% of the amount were IGs. By sector, sovereigns (46.4%), financials (43.2%) and LGFV (4.3%) were top issuers. Asia ex - JP, AU & NZ Dim Sum bonds totaled RMB77.6bn in Feb'26 and RMB108.8bn in 2M26, decreased 43.1% and 48.5% yoy respectively [14] 3.3.6 LGFV Bonds - In Feb'26, the gross USD bonds issuance of LGFVs decreased by 82.0% yoy to USD485.5mn, and Dim Sum LGFV bonds issuance decreased by 93.9% yoy to RMB500mn. Cumulatively, the gross USD bonds issuance of LGFVs decreased by 89.6% yoy to USD590mn in 2M26, and Dim Sum LGFV bonds issuance decreased by 57.2% yoy to RMB6.8bn [17] 3.4 China Economy - CPI in Feb'26 rebounded to 1.3% yoy thanks to the base effect and surging tourism price during holidays. PPI beat market expectation driven by surging prices in upstream sectors including crude oil and non - ferrous metals, while PPI of consumer goods remained subdued. China appears to be edging out of deflation, yet the recovery of price - wage transmission remained fragile as reflation was largely supply - driven, and final consumption demands were still subdued. Energy inflation driven by Middle East tensions would erode real purchasing power. Breaking the deflation spiral durably would require sustained fiscal expansion and demand - side stimulus. The CPI, PPI and GDP deflator are expected to reflate from 0.1%, - 2.6% and - 1% in 2025 to 1.1%, 0.5% and 0.8% in 2026. The PBOC is expected to utilize its structural monetary tools in the near term and lower the interest rate and RRR by 10bps and 50 bps by the end of 2Q26 as the real estate market continues to soften [4][20][25] 3.5 New Issues 3.5.1 Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced) | Issuer/Guarantor | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Coupon | Priced | Issue Rating (M/S/F) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited Hong Kong Branch | 1000 | 3yr | SOFR+38 | SOFR+38 | A1/-/- | [27] 3.5.2 Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline) | Issuer/Guarantor | Currency | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Pricing | Issue Rating (M/S/F) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Laizhou Finance Investment | USD | - | 3yr | 5.9% | NR | | Science City (Guangzhou) Investment Group Co., Ltd. | USD | - | 2yr | 4.95% | -/-/BBB | [28] 3.6 News and Market Color - There were 91 credit bonds issued yesterday onshore with an amount of RMB94bn. Month - to - date, 511 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB437bn raised, representing a 25.9% yoy increase [29] - Kazakhstan may place Panda bonds as soon as next month and could seek USD500mn [29] - ACEN 2025 EBITDA was up 17% to PHP22.5bn (cUSD380.1mn) [29] - Saudi Aramco cuts output at two oilfields during Strait of Hormuz disruption [29] - China Oilfield Services priced CNH5bn 3 - year Reg S senior unsecured dim sum bond (A3/-/A -) at 1.95%, tightened from IPT at 2.45% [29] - Media reported GLP plans Hong Kong IPO to raise at least USD1bn [29] - Media reported Greenko Energies mulls USD1bn IPO in India [29] - Rio Tinto halts sale of titanium business as the Iran war created greater difficulties in striking a deal with potential Chinese buyers [30]