海外不确定性加剧，国内两会召开

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of economic and corporate profits is neutral to bearish. Due to the Spring Festival month - shift, the manufacturing PMI declined seasonally. In February 2026, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.0 (previous value 49.3), and non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (previous value 49.4). The economic targets and policy stance in 2026 announced during the "Two Sessions" basically met expectations, with the economic growth target set at 4.5% - 5% [3]. - Policy influence is neutral to bullish. The government work report put forward goals such as economic growth, unemployment rate, and inflation. The CSRC Chairman proposed to improve market mechanisms and add a more precise and inclusive listing standard on the GEM [3]. - Overseas factors are bearish. The uncertainty in the Middle East has intensified, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in WTI crude oil prices. International institutions warned that it may interrupt the global inflation downward trend, increasing the risk of "stagflation" [3]. - Liquidity is neutral. The trading volume of A - shares last week increased, but it also showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The average daily trading volume increased by 2043.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3]. - The investment view is to go long in the medium - to - long - term. In the short term, due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical factors, it is expected to fluctuate mainly. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the discount advantage of stock index futures, long positions can be built in batches [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - The main logic of influencing factors includes economic and corporate profits (neutral to bearish), policy (neutral to bullish), overseas factors (bearish), and liquidity (neutral). The investment strategy is to go long in the medium - to - long - term, and the risk to focus on is overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - Index performance: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.07% to 4660.4; the Shanghai 50 index fell 1.54% to 2992.7; the CSI 500 index fell 3.44% to 8360.3; the CSI 1000 index fell 3.64% to 8248.9 [5]. - Futures performance: The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined to varying degrees [6]. - Industry performance: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, public utilities (3.4%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (2.1%), and banks (1.6%) led the gains, while media (-7%), non - ferrous metals (-5.5%), computers (-5.3%), electronics (-5.1%), and building materials (-4.3%) led the losses [9]. - Futures trading volume and open interest: The trading volumes of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 72.67%, 68.19%, 93.06%, and 81.40% respectively, while the open interest of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500 futures decreased by 1.24%, 0.94%, and 3.15% respectively, and the open interest of CSI 1000 futures increased by 0.76% [11]. - Futures premium and discount: As of March 6, all contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were in a discount state [15]. - Cross - variety spread: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50 was at a high historical level, while the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at a low historical level [19]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Central bank operations: This week, the central bank conducted 1616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 15250 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 13634 billion yuan. Next week, 2776 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1500 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on the next Tuesday [25]. - Market trading volume and margin trading: As of March 5, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 26434.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 171.8 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market trading volume was 9.5%, at the 74.2% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 2043.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week. As of March 6, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was 5.27, at the 51.1% quantile level in the past decade [31]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profits - Macroeconomic indicators: In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, down 0.3 from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, up 0.1 from the previous month. Other economic indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment also showed different trends [34]. - Real estate indicators: The document shows various real estate - related data such as personal housing loan interest rates, housing transaction volumes, and price indices [36]. - Industry indicators: Data on the retail sales of enterprises above the designated size, manufacturing industries, and infrastructure investment in different periods are presented, reflecting the development status of different industries [38][39][40]. - Manufacturing PMI details: In February 2026, in the manufacturing PMI, new orders, new export orders, and production all declined, while the production and operation activity expectation increased [42]. - Index profitability: The document provides the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company and the return on net assets (TTM) of major broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices [45][46]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - Recent macro - policy trends include economic target setting, fiscal policy (deficit rate, special bonds, etc.), expansion of domestic demand policies, real estate policies, and various regulatory requirements and measures put forward by different departments and meetings [50][51][52]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US economic data: In February 2026, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, down 0.2 from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 56.1%, up 2.3 from the previous value. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, up 0.1 from the previous value, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was - 92,000, a significant decrease from the previous value. The consumer confidence index was 56.6, up 0.2 from the previous value [63]. - US inflation data: In December 2025, the US PCE increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 3% year - on - year; the CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year [66]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - Index valuation: As of March 6, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.2 times, 11.6 times, 37.5 times, and 50 times respectively, at the 83%, 80%, 78.7%, and 73% quantile levels since October 2014 [72]. - Sector valuation: The document provides the price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their historical quantile levels of different sectors [76].