地方债周度跟踪20260306：今年新增地方债限额与上年持平-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased this period but are expected to decline next period. The current 10Y and above local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness, but the potential pressure of increased bond supply after the Two Sessions should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds this period (2026.3.2 - 2026.3.8) was 2724.84 billion yuan/2562.29 billion yuan (2564.20 billion yuan/1894.23 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing next period (2026.3.9 - 2026.3.15) is 1355.45 billion yuan/632.14 billion yuan [2][6]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 17.95 years, shorter than 21.76 years in the previous period [2][8]. - The issuance spreads of 10/30 - year local government bonds compared with the same - term national bonds increased to 17.45BP/decreased to 21.00BP this period (12.09/23.46BP in the previous period), and the full - field multiples increased [2][9]. - Compared with the same period in 2024 and 2025, the issuance progress of new general bonds this year is slower, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. As of March 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 26.9% and 20.5% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 29.3% and 20.9% [2][10][12]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026 is 936.2 billion yuan, of which new special bonds are 302.7 billion yuan. As of March 6, 2026, 24 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026, with new special bonds of 302.7 billion yuan [2][20][21]. - This period, the special new special bonds issued 5.6 billion yuan, and the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts issued 112.6 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of March 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 was 105.5 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 792.3 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 39.6%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 3.6 billion yuan [2][15][16]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased significantly - As of March 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds were 19.90BP and 20.88BP respectively, narrowing by 2.57BP and 0.14BP compared with February 28, 2026, and were at the 52.60% and 80.00% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][23][27]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 1.10%, a significant increase compared with 0.42% in the previous period [2][33]. - This period, the yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qinghai, Heilongjiang, and Jilin were better than the national average [2].