白糖周报2026/3/5：白糖：能源板块的编外品种-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is neutral - slightly bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The sugar price is affected by energy price transmission, with raw sugar being strong. Although the domestic market is in the off - season, cost support and increased volatility in the external market make the price strong [3] - Various institutions have lowered the surplus expectations for the 2025/26 sugar season. The ISO predicts a supply surplus of 122 tons, a 41 - ton reduction from the previous forecast; Czarnikow predicts a 670 - ton surplus, a 70 - ton reduction from the previous estimate [8] - In the 2025/26 sugar season, Brazil's cumulative sugar production reached 4024 tons, a 0.86% year - on - year increase; India's sugar - making process has slowed down year - on - year; Thailand has a slight production increase expectation [3] - As of the end of January, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 689 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 270 tons. Sales in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong decreased year - on - year [3][57] - There is a profit within the quota, but the import volume in January is expected to be low [3] - The sugar industrial inventory is 419 tons, a 43 - ton year - on - year increase [3] - The ethanol - to - oil ratio fluctuates greatly. The short - term rapid increase in crude oil prices stimulates the demand for ethanol [3] - The raw - white sugar price difference is $107 per ton, indicating normal demand for raw sugar [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market Production - Brazil: In the second half of January, the sugar production in the central - southern region was 0.5 tons, a 36.31% year - on - year decrease. As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugar production was 4024 tons, a 0.86% year - on - year increase. The ethanol production in the second half of January was 439 million liters, a 9.31% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative ethanol production was 3.1706 billion liters, a 4.64% year - on - year decrease [20][23] - India: As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative sugar production was 2463 tons, a 262.5 - ton year - on - year increase, and the average sugar yield was 9.44%, a 0.13% year - on - year increase. The sugar - making process has slowed down year - on - year [35] Supply and Demand - ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season will be 181.29 million tons, a 480,000 - ton reduction from the previous forecast; the consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a 70,000 - ton reduction from the previous forecast; the supply surplus will be 122,000 tons, a 41,000 - ton reduction from the previous forecast [8] - Czarnikow predicts a 670,000 - ton supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, a 70,000 - ton reduction from the previous estimate [8] - Green Pool predicts a 156,000 - ton supply surplus in the 2026/27 sugar season, lower than the 274,000 - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season [8] Export - As of the week ending February 25, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 1.4617 million tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease. The sugar export volume in Brazil decreased to 2.0175 million tons in January, and the export is expected to continue to slow down [32] Domestic Market Production and Sales - As of the end of January in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 689 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 270 tons. Sales in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong decreased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, although it is the off - season, the futures market is strong, driving up the spot price, and the sales are okay [3][57] Import - In January, Brazil exported only 0.01 tons of sugar to China, which eases the domestic supply pressure. There is no import volume outside the quota for now. Thailand may be another import source, but the impact is limited [70] Market Indicators - The basis has converged with the rise of the futures market. There is no obvious trend in the monthly spread. In terms of the single - side situation, the global sugar market is in a high - yield cycle, but Brazil's production is slightly lower than expected after being finalized. The year - on - year growth rate of India's sugar production has slowed down. The war between the US, Israel, and Iran may support the sugar price through ethanol price transmission. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, although the actual driving force is limited, the spot price has limited downward space under the policy support, which is beneficial to the far - month contracts [77]