铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - International oil prices have fluctuated sharply, with the price rising to $119.5 and then falling back to $91 due to geopolitical supply - cut expectations and the expectation of the end of the US - Iran war [2] - China's inflation in February rebounded overall, with CPI rising to 1.3% year - on - year and PPI narrowing to - 0.9%. The A - share market is likely to maintain a volatile and sector - differentiated pattern in the short term [3] - Gold prices are expected to show a slightly weakening trend in a volatile manner with limited downward space, while silver prices will remain highly volatile [5] - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [7] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong before the conflict eases and the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked [8] - Alumina prices are under pressure after a brief surge [9] - Cast aluminum is expected to remain strong [10] - Zinc prices are expected to be volatile [11] - Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [13] - Tin prices are expected to be supported by downstream rigid - demand replenishment [14] - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [15] - Steel futures prices are expected to continue to rebound in a volatile manner [17] - Iron ore prices are expected to rebound in a volatile manner in the short term [18] - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to run slightly stronger in a volatile manner [21] - Palm oil prices are expected to run slightly stronger in a volatile manner [23] 3. Summarized by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Oil prices have fluctuated sharply. The market first priced in the "worst - case scenario" due to supply concerns, and then prices fell as G7 and IEA discussed releasing oil reserves and the US considered relaxing sanctions on Russian oil. The US stock market rebounded, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.1%, the US dollar index fell to 98.8, and precious metals and copper prices recovered [2] - Domestic: In February, inflation rebounded. CPI rose to 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI narrowed to - 0.9%. The A - share market was under pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index failing to recover the 4100 mark. The market is likely to be volatile and sector - differentiated in the short term [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.19% to $5148.70 per ounce. Trump's remarks on the progress of the military operation in Iran eased market panic, suppressing gold's rise. The increase in inflation expectations and the strengthening of the US dollar also pressured gold prices. Gold is expected to be slightly weak in a volatile manner [4][5] - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 3.60% to $87.34 per ounce. The improvement in market risk appetite led to a rebound in silver prices, which are expected to remain highly volatile [4][5] 3.3 Base Metals - Copper: LME copper rebounded to around $13000. Multiple factors such as Trump's remarks on the end of the US - Iran conflict, Iran's oil transportation, and G7's plan to release oil reserves led to a recovery in market risk appetite, driving copper prices to rebound. The supply - demand balance of copper is expected to continue in the future, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [6][7] - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum futures rose 1.61%. Although Trump said the war on Iran might end soon, supply concerns still exist, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong before the conflict eases and the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked [8] - Alumina: The futures price rose 3.57%. Although there was a short - term upward drive, due to high inventory, high - level production capacity, and the possible inflow of overseas surplus capacity, the price is under pressure after a brief surge [9] - Cast Aluminum: The futures price rose 1.98%. Supply shortages dominate the market, and cast aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [10] - Zinc: Shanghai zinc futures were volatile. The improvement in market risk appetite reduced the pressure on metals, but the uncertainty in the US - Iran situation and high energy costs provided support. Domestic supply and demand both increased, and zinc prices are expected to be volatile [11] - Lead: Shanghai lead futures were in a low - level consolidation. High inventory suppressed lead prices, but the cost side provided support, and lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [13] - Tin: Shanghai tin futures showed a downward - then - upward trend. Although the supply - side uncertainty decreased, downstream rigid - demand replenishment increased, and tin prices are expected to be supported [14] - Nickel: Shanghai nickel futures were volatile. The improvement in market risk appetite and the recovery of downstream demand, but the lack of independent driving factors, nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [15] 3.4 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: Steel futures rose. Spot market trading volume increased, and demand entered the seasonal release stage. Although supply also increased, the limited profit of steel mills restricted production expansion. Steel prices are expected to continue to rebound in a volatile manner [16][17] - Iron Ore: Iron ore futures rose. Overseas shipments decreased, and domestic steel mills resumed production, increasing demand for iron ore. Although port inventory remained high, iron ore prices are expected to rebound in a volatile manner in the short term [18] 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke: Futures prices fluctuated widely. After the Spring Festival, coking coal supply increased, and inventory accumulated. Coke production recovered, but downstream procurement was cautious. Affected by short - term news, prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [19] 3.6 Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Soybean and rapeseed meal futures prices rose. Brazilian soybean harvesting progress exceeded 50%, and the precipitation in the Argentine soybean - producing area was lower than the average. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased. Affected by market sentiment and funds, prices are expected to run slightly stronger in a volatile manner [20][21] - Palm Oil: Palm oil futures prices rose significantly. Indonesia may restart the B50 biodiesel plan. Affected by oil prices and inventory changes, palm oil prices are expected to run slightly stronger in a volatile manner [22][23] 3.7 Industry Data - The report provides detailed trading data of various metal futures contracts on March 9, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [24] - It also presents the industrial data of multiple commodities on March 9 and March 6, such as inventory, spot prices, and price spreads [25][28][30]