油脂产业周报：地缘冲突或缓解，油脂恢复震荡运行-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with its core driver still in the overseas market. The current core contradictions mainly include the alleviation of palm oil supply pressure, US biodiesel policy, Sino - Canadian relations affecting rapeseed imports, domestic oil inventory and supply - demand situation, and geopolitical conflicts. Although domestic demand suppresses oil prices, the international market provides support from factors such as geopolitical conflicts and US energy policies. The market awaits the implementation of the final US energy policy. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations Core Contradictions - Palm oil: In February, Malaysian palm oil production may decline significantly, but exports are occupied by Indonesia, and inventory pressure eases but with limited price boost. Indonesia may implement the B50 plan in the second half of the year, which could potentially increase palm oil demand. [1] - US biodiesel policy: The EPA submitted the long - delayed RVO final proposal for review in February 2026, and the final rule will be released by the end of March, providing market certainty. The Trump administration plans to re - allocate biofuel blending obligations, which is expected to support the global oil market. [2] - Rapeseed: The Sino - Canadian negotiation is optimistic, and rapeseed imports are expected to maintain a 14.9% import tax. With a global rapeseed harvest, rapeseed oil support weakens, and supply is expected to be abundant. [2] - Domestic oil inventory: Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient. As the second quarter approaches, supply pressure may increase due to weak demand. [2] - Geopolitical conflicts: Tensions in the Middle East initially drove up oil prices, but with the expected easing of conflicts, oil prices declined, and the oil market lost its upward momentum. However, there is still a possibility of recurrence. [2] Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: In the short term, after the market gives back the emotional gains from crude oil, it will return to a volatile state, with the lower price support moving up. [25] - Price range: The oscillation range for P2605 is [8800 - 9800], Y2605 is [8000 - 8900], and OI2605 is [9000 - 10000]. [25] - Technical analysis: Adopt a short - term oscillatory approach and conduct range trading. Observe the weakening trend of the spread between far - month rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean oils for arbitrage. [25] - Basis, calendar spread, and hedge arbitrage strategies: Consider the current basis to be in a short - term weak oscillation. For calendar spread, conduct a long OI5 - 9 spread strategy. For hedge arbitrage, expect the far - month 09 rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm oil spreads to weaken. [25] Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8900, rapeseed oil is 9000 - 10000, and palm oil is 8800 - 9800. [26] - Hedging strategies: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about high - inventory losses can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. [26] Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: The prices of palm oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts have increased, while the BMD palm oil主力 has decreased. [27] - Soybean oil: The prices of soybean oil 01 and 05 contracts are stable, and 09 has increased. The CBOT soybean oil主力 has also increased. [27] - Rapeseed oil: The prices of rapeseed oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are stable. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract has decreased. [29] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 10 increased by 45.34% compared to the same period last month. Indonesia may implement the B50 policy in the second half of the year, which could increase palm oil demand. [30] - Bearish information: Malaysia's February palm oil production, exports, and inventory were not in line with market expectations. As of March 6, 2026, the national palm oil commercial inventory increased. Trump announced the end of the military operation against Iran, causing a decline in oil prices. [31] - Spot trading information: Last week, rapeseed oil and soybean oil trading increased significantly year - on - year, while palm oil trading was relatively weak and decreased month - on - month. [32] Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, and origin weather information. [41] 3.3 Disk Interpretation Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The oil market rose first and then fell this week, affected by geopolitical conflicts. Capital movements in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends, with overall short - term bearish sentiment not strong. The market shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure, with the 5 - 9 spread strengthening. The basis of the main contracts rebounded slightly, but is still in a bottom - consolidation phase. The spread between soybean and palm oil narrowed, and the spreads between rapeseed and palm oil and between soybean and palm oil weakened. [40][43][48] - Overseas market: The overseas market oscillated strongly this week. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The management fund's net position ratio rebounded, while commercial positions remained net short. [52][54] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The POGO spread continued to decline, which may boost the enthusiasm for biofuel blending. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, but is expected to strengthen as US soybean prices rebound. [56] Import - Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of palm oil remained negative, which may limit long - term purchases. [58] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's February palm oil supply - demand report was bearish, but the improvement in March export data and the oil price decline due to crude oil price adjustment limited its impact on the market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rainfall in Malaysia. [60] Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: Purchasing is weak in the off - season, and inventory is increasing, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern. [61] - Soybean oil: Although the first quarter is a seasonal low for soybean arrivals, inventory pressure is still high, but short - term supply shortages may occur. [61] - Rapeseed oil: Downstream demand is limited, and inventory continues to decline. However, with a global rapeseed harvest and improved Sino - Canadian trade, future supply may increase. [61] Demand - Side and Deduction - The inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and downstream demand is weak, especially after the Spring Festival. [64]