2026年1-2月外贸数据点评：开年外贸：闪耀的非常信号

Export Performance - In January-February 2026, China's export value increased by 21.8% year-on-year, while imports rose by 19.8%[5] - The cumulative trade surplus for the same period reached $213.62 billion[5] - The export growth rate of 21.8% is among the highest in the past decade, only slightly lower than in 2018 and 2021[5] Seasonal and External Factors - The delayed Spring Festival (approximately 20 days later than last year) contributed to higher exports in January-February, as manufacturers increased shipments to offset factory closures during the holiday[5] - Global manufacturing PMI improved to 51.9, indicating a recovery in external demand, which positively impacted China's exports[5][12] Market Dynamics - Exports to Africa surged nearly 50%, becoming a significant growth driver, while ASEAN and Hong Kong also maintained double-digit growth rates[5] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for solar products may have prompted companies to accelerate shipments in early 2026, boosting exports in related sectors[5] Import Trends - Imports also showed strong performance, primarily driven by high-tech products like automatic data processing equipment and integrated circuits, indicating a recovery in domestic demand[5] - The import growth rate for traditional and resource products is gradually improving, with significant increases in quantities for iron ore, crude oil, and lignite, suggesting a recovery in domestic consumption[5] Future Outlook - The high trade surplus is expected to continue, providing stable support for economic growth in the early stages of the 14th Five-Year Plan[5] - The ongoing surplus may also strengthen the fundamentals for the renminbi, potentially leading to its appreciation[7]