Youngor(SH:600177) GF SECURITIES·2026-03-10 08:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [12]. Core Views - The company has released a draft for a stock incentive plan, reflecting its confidence in long-term development. The plan involves granting 120 million restricted shares to 827 key management and core employees, which is about 2.60% of the total share capital as of the announcement date [5]. - The company is refocusing on its core apparel business, aiming for high-quality development and sustained high dividends. The apparel segment is expected to benefit from strategic collaborations and improved brand positioning [5]. - The company has implemented a strategy to accelerate sales and effectively reduce inventory in its real estate business since 2017 [5]. - The investment business remains a significant source of profit with a high return on investment [5]. - The projected dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 83.5%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.62% [5]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 13,749 million in 2023 to RMB 11,561 million in 2025, with a growth rate of -7.2% in 2023 and -18.5% in 2025 [2]. - EBITDA is expected to decrease from RMB 2,669 million in 2023 to RMB 1,397 million in 2025, reflecting a challenging operating environment [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to drop from RMB 3,434 million in 2023 to RMB 2,655 million in 2025, with a significant decline of 32.2% in 2023 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from RMB 0.74 in 2023 to RMB 0.57 in 2025, before recovering to RMB 0.92 by 2027 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to fluctuate, starting at 8.8 in 2023 and reaching 7.6 by 2027 [2]. Performance Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 8.8% in 2023 to 6.3% in 2025, before improving to 9.8% by 2027 [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 44.1% in 2023 to 61.7% by 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing power [8]. - The net profit margin is forecasted to increase from 25.5% in 2023 to 35.4% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [8]. Conclusion - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned for long-term growth despite short-term challenges, with a strong focus on its core apparel business and a commitment to high dividend payouts [5][2].