贵金属数据日报-20260310

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, factors such as geopolitical games, oil price fluctuations, and inflation risks will continue to impact the precious metals market. However, as the precious metals market has partially digested the negative impact of "rising inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations", once the oil price rally slows down, precious metals are expected to return to their own logic and prices may gradually rise in a volatile manner. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still recommend buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 9, 2026, London gold spot was $5096.61/ounce, London silver spot was $83.54/ounce, COMEX gold was $5104.30/ounce, and COMEX silver was $83.63/ounce. Compared with March 6, 2026, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 0.4% and silver down about 1.0% - 1.2%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed certain changes, with AU2604 at 1140 yuan/gram and AG2604 at 21745 yuan/kilogram [3] - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.4 yuan/gram on March 9, 2026, with a 14.3% increase compared with March 6. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 52.43, with a - 0.1% change [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 6, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1073.32 tons, a - 0.24% change compared with March 5. The silver ETF - SLV was 15761.62327 tons, a - 0.30% change. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different degrees of change [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 9, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 104934.00 kilograms, a - 0.09% change compared with March 6. The SHFE silver inventory was 253370.00 kilograms, a - 1.01% change. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased [3] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 9, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92, a 0.19% increase compared with March 6. The US dollar index was 98.96 on March 6, a - 0.09% change compared with March 5. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had different degrees of change [3] 5. Market Review - On March 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.08% to 1140 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.7% to 21547 yuan/kilogram [3] 6. Impact Analysis - Geopolitical factors: The election of Khamenei's son as the Supreme Leader of Iran makes the US - Iran conflict difficult to ease in the short term. The production cuts announced by some Middle - Eastern countries over the weekend led to a sharp increase in US crude oil prices, increasing inflation risks and suppressing precious metals prices. Later, the news of the G67 group's possible coordinated release of oil reserves narrowed the increase in oil prices, and the decline in precious metals prices also slowed down [4] - Other factors: The unexpected weakness of the US February non - farm payrolls increases the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy, the risk of the US private credit crisis is initially revealed, the US - Iran situation remains tense, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 16th consecutive month, which provides support for precious metals prices. For silver, geopolitical and stagflation risks may suppress its industrial attributes, but the continuous decline in inventory provides support for silver prices [4] 7. Future Market Analysis - Short - term: Geopolitical games, oil price fluctuations, and inflation risks will continue to impact the precious metals market. Once oil price increases slow down, precious metals may return to their own logic and prices may rise [5] - Long - term: The underlying logic of the precious metals bull market is solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will continue, and precious metals prices have room to rise. Long - term strategies recommend buying on dips [5]