固定收益点评：债跌结束了吗？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent bond market decline was due to the resonance of "strong expectations" and "strong reality." The soaring international oil prices led to an increase in investors' expectations of imported inflation, and the overall CPI and PPI in February exceeded expectations, causing the spread of inflation trading sentiment and an overall rise in interest rates [6][12]. - The adjustment on March 9 had a large amplitude, but the panic sentiment did not spread. The panic did not spread because it was the first trading day of the bond market adjustment. It is expected that the liability side of public - offering funds is relatively stable, and the adjustment basically ended in the morning, though the amplitude was significantly high [6][12]. - The bond market trend on March 10 is crucial. If the bond market continues to fall, the liability side of public - offering funds may be further pressured and lead to redemptions; otherwise, the sentiment will stabilize. There is no need to worry too much about inflation trading as the impact of inflation on the bond market has shown a short - term trend in recent years, and the central bank needs to maintain a loose monetary policy. Inflation will not be the core variable affecting the bond market trend [6][12]. - After Trump announced that the war was "basically over" in the morning, it is expected that the oil price will decline. Even if asset prices fluctuate, the bond market will gradually become desensitized, and the marginal pricing amplitude will gradually decline [6][12]. - In the short term, there will be a 50 - year treasury bond issuance on March 11. It is necessary to pay attention to whether large - scale banks will buy bonds to support the market in the next two trading days. Since December last year, among the 4 issuances of 30 - year treasury bonds, large - scale banks bought 30 - year treasury bonds before 3 of them (except for March 6). The strategy of "buying on every adjustment" still applies, and the overall outlook for the bond market is not pessimistic [6][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Event - On March 9, affected by inflation factors, the bond market declined across the board. The yield to maturity of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 2500006 increased by 3.85bp [4][11]. Review - Reasons for the bond market decline: The resonance of "strong expectations" and "strong reality," with soaring international oil prices, increased expectations of imported inflation, and overall CPI and PPI in February exceeding expectations, leading to the spread of inflation trading sentiment and rising interest rates [6][12]. - Characteristics of the adjustment: Large amplitude but no spread of panic sentiment. The panic did not spread because it was the first trading day of the adjustment, the liability side of public - offering funds is expected to be relatively stable, and the adjustment basically ended in the morning [6][12]. - Outlook for the bond market: The trend on March 10 is crucial. No need to worry too much about inflation trading. After Trump's announcement, the oil price is expected to decline, and the bond market will gradually become desensitized. There will be a 50 - year treasury bond issuance on March 11, and it is necessary to pay attention to large - scale banks' bond - buying operations. The "buy on every adjustment" strategy still applies, and the bond market outlook is not pessimistic [6][12][13].