黄金周报：油价飙升推升通胀预期，金价冲高回落-20260310

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International crude oil price surge pushed up market inflation expectations, causing the gold price to rise first and then fall. Last week, gold prices fluctuated and adjusted. After a sharp rise on Monday due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and risk - aversion sentiment, the gold price oscillated downward from Tuesday. This was due to the panic in the energy supply chain, the rise in the US inflation expectation, the increase in the US dollar index, and the concern about liquidity in the global stock market [2]. - This week (the week of March 9), the gold price will oscillate and rise. The US government's measures to ease oil price pressure are expected to cause oil prices to fall from their high levels, and the previous suppression of gold prices by soaring oil prices will be significantly alleviated. However, due to high geopolitical risks and uncertain US inflation trends, the expectation of interest rate cuts remains low, which will limit the increase in the gold price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Last Week's Market Review - Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends: Last Friday (March 6), the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 1,140.80 yuan/gram, down 7.10 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $5,181.30 per ounce, down $115.10 per ounce. The spot gold T + D price closed at 1,138.46 yuan/gram, down 4.02 yuan/gram; the London gold spot price closed at $5,168.01 per ounce, down $110.25 per ounce [3]. - Gold Basis: Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was -$9.95 per ounce, up $47.75 per ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was -2.22 yuan/gram, up 2.02 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [6]. - Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference: Last week, the international crude oil price rose significantly, reducing the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut. The decline of the foreign - market gold price was greater than that of the domestic market. The domestic - foreign price difference of gold on Friday was -74.05 yuan/gram, up significantly from -89.78 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The gold - oil ratio decreased significantly, the gold - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio increased slightly [9]. - Position Analysis: In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings decreased significantly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 1,073.32 tons, a decrease of 28.01 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased significantly. In terms of futures positions, as of February 24, the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions both decreased, but the decline of short positions was larger, resulting in a slight increase in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory decreased by 27 kilograms to 105,033 kilograms [14]. II. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - Important Economic Data - US manufacturing PMI in February continued to expand for two consecutive months, and the price index soared to a nearly four - year high. The ISM manufacturing activity index in February slightly declined to 52.4, and the S&P manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.4 to 51.6, hitting a nearly seven - month low [19]. - The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the highest level in three months. However, the January data was significantly revised downward, and the breadth of employment creation was insufficient [20]. - The US ISM services PMI in February rose, and the order backlog index increased significantly. The service industry index rose to 56.1, and the new order sub - index climbed to 58.6, hitting a nearly one - year high [21]. - The soaring oil price impacted the interest rate cut expectation, and the expectation of US bond traders that the Fed would not cut interest rates this year increased. As of March 5, the probability that the Fed would maintain the current interest rate range by December was 25%, higher than 17% the previous week [22]. - The US non - farm payrolls in February were disappointing, with a net decrease of 92,000 employed people and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. However, the wage data strengthened, increasing the complexity of the Fed's policy judgment [24]. - The US retail sales in January decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the first negative growth since October last year. After excluding some items, the "control group" sales increased by 0.3% month - on - month, indicating a relatively stable consumer end [25]. - Fed Policy Tracking - On March 6, Fed Governor Waller said that the Iran war would not have a continuous impact on inflation and reiterated his preference for a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [29]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the weak non - farm employment data in February deepened her concerns about the labor market, but policymakers should not over - interpret single - month data, and the Fed should not cut interest rates immediately due to "bilateral risks" [30]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hopes that the Fed can resume interest rate cuts by the end of this year [31]. - US Dollar Index Trend: Last week, the US dollar index rose significantly. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the sharp rise in oil prices, and international crude oil being priced in US dollars, the US dollar index rose by 1.34% to 98.96 as of last Friday [31]. - US TIPS Yield Trend: Last week, the US 10 - year TIPS yield rose significantly. The continued expansion of the US manufacturing PMI in February and the sharp rise in international crude oil prices increased market concerns about inflation rebound, causing the 10 - year TIPS yield to rise by 8 basis points to 1.80% as of Friday [32]. - International Important Event Tracking: The US - Iran conflict continued to expand. Last week, the US, Israel, and Iran continued to launch attacks. Trump demanded that Iran surrender unconditionally, but Iran vowed not to surrender, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it was ready for a full - scale war lasting at least six months. Tehran elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the supreme leader [37].