政府债周报（03/08）：地方债发行久期上升-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance amounts, special bond issuance progress, and issuance term changes [1][5][6] Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - 3/9 - 3/15 Forecasted Issuance: 135.545 billion yuan, including 37.13 billion yuan of new bonds (19.395 billion yuan of new general bonds and 17.734 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 98.415 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (55.256 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 43.16 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] - 3/2 - 3/8 Actual Issuance: 272.484 billion yuan, including 82.961 billion yuan of new bonds (4.792 billion yuan of new general bonds and 78.169 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 189.523 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (54.328 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 135.195 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6] 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - Special Refinancing Bonds: As of March 8, the fifth round, second batch of special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth round, third batch totaled 78.5955 billion yuan, with an additional 2.2843 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth round, third batch were Jiangsu (8.1159 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Hunan (5.16 billion yuan) [7] - Special New Special Bonds: As of March 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 9.4606 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 255.4672 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions were Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions were Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Hunan (1.03 billion yuan) [7] 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - In March 2026, the planned issuance of local government bonds nationwide was 83.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.12 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance was 40.8 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 41.91 billion yuan and a net financing of 41.14 billion yuan [8] 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - 3/2 - 3/8: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 17.95 years, that of national bonds was 0.54 years, and that of government bonds was 11.79 years [9] - 3/9 - 3/15: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 10.15 years, that of national bonds was 0.17 years, and that of government bonds was 2.89 years [9] - As of March 6, 2026: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 17.46 years, an increase of 0.5 years compared to the same period in 2025; that of national bonds was 5.79 years, an increase of 1.4 years; and that of government bonds was 6.12 years, a decrease of 4.1 years [9]