瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading sentiment in the precious metals market significantly recovered. The Shanghai Gold 2606 contract closed up 0.80% at 1,150 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2606 contract closed up 7.11% at 22,758 yuan/kilogram. The external gold - silver ratio dropped sharply [2]. - After Trump said the Iran war was "basically over", the market risk premium increased, the crude oil price dropped sharply, the US dollar index declined under pressure, and some funds flowed back to the precious metals market [2]. - The US February non - farm payroll data was much worse than expected, the unemployment rate rose, and the probability of a mid - year interest rate cut in the interest rate futures market rose above 50%, which provided marginal support for the gold price [2]. - The inflation risk caused by the Iran conflict makes it difficult for the Fed to maintain a dovish stance. The future trend of precious metals has high uncertainty [2]. - In the short term, precious metals are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long term, the bullish logic remains intact, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold main contract closing price: 1,150 yuan/gram, up 10 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract closing price: 22,758 yuan/kilogram, up 1,211 yuan [2]. - Shanghai Gold main contract open interest: 111,758 lots, up 891 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract open interest: 3,294 lots, down 32 lots [2]. - Shanghai Gold main contract trading volume: 203,619 lots, down 108,781 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract trading volume: 471,037 lots, down 148,608 lots [2]. - Shanghai Gold warehouse receipt quantity: 104,934 kilograms, unchanged; Shanghai Silver warehouse receipt quantity: 259,178 kilograms, up 5,808 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot price: 1,144.78 yuan/gram, up 4.40 yuan; Huatong No.1 silver spot price: 22,245 yuan/kilogram, up 1,790 yuan [2]. - Shanghai Gold main contract basis: - 5.22 yuan/gram, down 5.60 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract basis: - 513 yuan/kilogram, up 579 yuan [2]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings: 1,070.71 tons, down 2.61 tons; SLV silver ETF holdings: 15,710.91 tons, down 50.71 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - Gold CFTC non - commercial net long positions: 160,145 contracts, up 968 contracts; Silver CFTC non - commercial net long positions: 23,338 contracts, up 1,078 contracts [2]. - Total gold supply (quarterly): 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; Total silver supply (annually): 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - Total gold demand (quarterly): 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; Total silver demand (annually): 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - US dollar index: 98.71, down 0.24; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 1.78%, down 0.02% [2]. - VIX volatility index: 25.50, down 3.99; CBOE gold volatility index: 33.52, down 0.74 [2]. - S&P 500/gold price ratio: 1.34, up 0.02; Gold - silver ratio: 60.95, down 1.32 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US - Iran war might end soon, and it had "basically ended" [2]. - G7 finance ministers discussed not releasing strategic oil reserves for now to deal with rising oil prices [2]. - Putin and Trump talked about the Middle East situation related to Iran and the negotiation process in Ukraine [2]. - European interest rate trading is being reshaped by rising energy prices. The interest rate swap market prices in two 25 - basis - point rate hikes by the ECB this year, and the UK market prices in a 15 - basis - point rate hike [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.3% [2]. 3.6 Option Analysis - For external gold options, the important lower support is around $5,000, and there is also some support around $5,100. The main resistance area is between $5,200 - $5,225. The Put/Call ratio is below 1, indicating a bullish market sentiment [2]. - For external silver options, the key multi - empty balance center is around $85, with some support around $84. There is some resistance around $89, and the expansion of long positions at higher strike prices is not obvious. The Put/Call ratio has fallen below 1, showing a bullish sentiment [2]. 3.7 Key Events to Watch - March 10, 18:00: US February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index [2]. - March 10, 22:00: US February existing home sales data [2]. - March 11, 20:30: US February CPI monthly and annual rates [2]. - March 13, 20:30: US January core PCE price index [2]. - March 13, 22:00: US January durable goods orders [2].