基本面尚且平稳，电解铜期价再次测试区间支撑

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the next one to two weeks, with a price range of 98,000 - 101,000 yuan/ton. The reasons are high inventory at the supply - end and increased supply expectations from new projects, short - term demand boost from restocking but overall stable demand, and the market's bottom - fishing sentiment after the price drop being restricted by inventory pressure [3][59][60] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The SHFE main contract price dropped from 101,220 yuan/ton on March 3, 2026, to 99,600 yuan/ton on March 9, 2026, a decline of 1.51%. The basis strengthened as the discounts of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper narrowed. For example, the discount of flat - water copper narrowed from - 135 yuan/ton on March 3, 2026, to - 60 yuan/ton on March 9, 2026 [1][53] - Position and Trading Volume: The LME position increased by 2,377 lots to 307,669 lots on March 6, 2026. After the copper price fell below 100,000 yuan/ton on March 9, 2026, the downstream's enthusiasm for price fixing increased, and the trading volume expanded [1][54] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply End: The supply is relatively abundant with continuous arrival of domestic and imported copper, and high social inventory. SHFE inventory increased from 282,200 tons on March 3, 2026, to 294,250 tons on March 9, 2026, an increase of 3.49%. New projects such as the Cobre Mendocino copper mine in Argentina applying for an incentive plan may increase long - term supply [2][55] - Demand End: The demand improved in the short term. After the copper price fell below 100,000 yuan/ton, the downstream's willingness to restock increased, and the orders of refined copper rod enterprises soared. However, the terminal demand in the air - conditioning industry was stable in 2025, with only a slight increase [2][56] - Inventory End: The inventory increased. LME inventory increased from 303,632 tons on March 3, 2026, to 319,087 tons on March 9, 2026, an increase of 1.14%. SHFE inventory increased from 282,200 tons to 294,250 tons, an increase of 3.49%, indicating increased inventory pressure [2][58] Price Trend Judgment - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the next one to two weeks. The driving factors are high inventory at the supply - end and increased supply expectations from new projects, short - term demand boost from restocking but overall stable demand, and the market's bottom - fishing sentiment after the price drop being restricted by inventory pressure. The price range is expected to be 98,000 - 101,000 yuan/ton [3][59][60]