瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, it is in a stage of both supply and demand increase, and the suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, it is in a situation of both supply and demand increase with seasonal accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the suggestion is light - position oscillatory trading with risk control [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, it is in a stage of both supply and demand increase, with downstream purchasing意愿 driving inventory reduction. The suggestion is light - position oscillatory trading with risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,880 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,839 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 3,388 US dollars/ton, down 43 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 454,625 tons, down 2,250 tons [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 130 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina was - 44 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 12,926 hands to 206,507 hands; the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 11,248 hands to 292,736 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 25,200 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,620 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 25,260 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,120 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 320 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 83%, down 1% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste was 19,700 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the import quantity of aluminum waste and scrap in China was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import quantity of primary aluminum was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons [2] - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 98.93%, up 0.04% [2] - The aluminum product output was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 42.96 million tons, down 11.04 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy was 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] - The completed production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 25.54%, down 9.59%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 33.21%, down 0.80% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract was 34.01%, up 0.0745; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.87, up 0.0112 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [2] - The Iran conflict severely hit the eurozone economic growth expectations, and the Sentix confidence index in the eurozone in March fell 7.3 points to - 3.1 [2] - US President Trump said that the war was basically over, was considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and it was too early to talk about seizing Iranian oil [2]