铁矿周报2026/3/5：短暂的春天或已到来-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is slightly falling, downstream profits are rising, molten iron is expected to increase, downstream demand is decent, short - term supply - demand may tighten slightly, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [3] - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [3] - The trading volume of iron ore spot and forward contracts is stable, the basis rate of the 05 contract is about 1.4%, the basis is narrowing, and the basis rate is decreasing [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global iron ore shipping volume has declined from its peak. The shipping volumes of Australia and Brazil are fluctuating at high levels and are lower year - on - year. The shipping volume from non - mainstream regions has decreased, and the total arrival volume has decreased. On March 1, 2026, Reuters' 7 - day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,868 thousand tons, with a week - on - week change of 2.7% and a year - on - year change of - 0.8%; Australia's 7 - day moving average shipping volume was 2,739 thousand tons, with a week - on - week change of - 1.2% and a year - on - year change of 1.7%; Brazil's 7 - day moving average shipping volume was 1,094 thousand tons, with a week - on - week change of 3.9% and a year - on - year change of - 14.2% [3][18][24] Demand - The profit of finished steel products has increased slightly, the price difference between scrap iron and molten iron has increased slightly. The daily average molten iron output of 247 samples has increased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week to 2.286 million tons. There are generally few maintenance operations recently, and the molten iron output may increase slightly in the near future. The weekly output of the five major steel products has declined, and the total inventory continues to rise. In terms of different varieties, the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased [3] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 1.45 million tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trading ore is 66%. The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills has decreased by 16.18 million tons, the mill inventory has decreased by 5.86 million tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has decreased by 10.33 million tons. The available days of imported ore have decreased by 7 days to 23 days [3] Price and Basis - The trading volume of iron ore spot and forward contracts is stable. The basis rate of the 05 contract is about 1.4%, the basis is narrowing, and the basis rate is decreasing. The spot prices of various iron ore varieties have certain fluctuations, and the basis of different contracts also shows corresponding changes [3][168] Market Structure - The premium of Brazilian powder has increased; the premium of mainstream medium - low grade ore has increased; the price difference between domestic and foreign ore has decreased [3] Balance Sheet - The total supply and consumption of iron ore from March 2025 to December 2026 are presented in the balance sheet. The total supply shows certain fluctuations, and the total consumption also changes. There are periods of surplus and shortage. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of total supply and total consumption also show different trends. According to the changes in inventory and molten iron, the downstream demand has been adjusted upwards [188]