铁合金周报2026/3/6：高位震荡，等待钢招-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The overall view is bearish. After a sharp rally this week, the price is oscillating at a high level. Due to overseas geopolitical conflicts, oil prices have soared, leading to a significant increase in shipping costs. As manganese ore has a high degree of external dependence, some market participants are worried about the stability of its subsequent shipments. Fundamentally, silicon - manganese is still in a state of oversupply. High production keeps manganese ore prices relatively firm in the short term. After the Spring Festival, downstream steel mills have gradually entered the resumption cycle. The procurement time of some northern steel mills is undetermined. After the Two Sessions, the demand for dual - silicon is expected to gradually recover, but it is still difficult to alleviate the oversupply situation. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - The monthly spread is bearish. As of March 5, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of manganese silicon was - 46 yuan/ton, continuing to oscillate at a low level [3]. - The spot market is neutral. Factory quotes are cautious, downstream transactions are a bit slow, and the steel procurement in March has been slow to start, with a wait - and - see attitude. The 6517 is quoted in the range of 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, the 6014 is quoted at around 5450 yuan/ton, and the high - silicon silicon - manganese is quoted in the range of 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton. 6517 factories mainly engage in hedging, and retail transactions are average [3]. - Steel production is neutral. As of March 6, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 111200 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products increased to 797240 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased slightly month - on - month [3]. - Inventory is bearish. As of March 5, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 249200 tons [3]. - Cost - profit is neutral. The manganese ore market remains firm, and the transaction center has gradually moved up. Comilog released its April offer at 5.25 US dollars/ton degree. Recently, the supply of South African manganese ore has been concentrated, and the market's sentiment of holding back supply and raising prices is prominent [3]. Ferrosilicon - The overall view is neutral. After a sharp rally this week, the price is oscillating at a high level. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are in a tight balance. The cost of semi - coke has decreased, but the increase in electricity cost makes the overall production cost relatively firm. The production of magnesium metal is at a high level. Due to the significant increase in the price of 72 ferrosilicon, the price difference between 75 and 72 ferrosilicon has narrowed significantly. Steel mills have started the March tender, and attention should be paid to the pricing. In the short term, the market price of ferrosilicon is stable with a slight upward trend. In February, the ferrosilicon warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and attention should be paid to the recovery of new warehouse receipts. For unilateral trading, be cautious about chasing long positions after the rapid rally of the futures price, and consider taking profits gradually [4]. - The monthly spread is bearish. As of March 5, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of ferrosilicon was - 50 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening month - on - month [4]. - The spot market is neutral. The 72 is priced at 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and the 75 is priced at 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton for cash natural lumps ex - factory. The price of 72 has increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [4]. - Steel and magnesium metal demand is neutral. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills is 17800 tons. The production of magnesium metal remains at a high level, and the demand for 75 ferrosilicon is better than that for 72 [4]. - Inventory is bullish. As of March 5, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 39500 tons. After the concentrated cancellation of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts in February, attention should be paid to the recovery of subsequent warehouse receipts [4]. - Cost - profit is neutral. The price of semi - coke has decreased slightly, while the electricity cost has increased, making the overall production cost firm [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 4.954 million tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase. Among them, the inventory at Tianjin Port has increased to 3.595 million tons, higher than the same period last year; the inventory at Qinzhou Port has increased significantly to 1.354 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year [11]. - At Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore is 2.289 million tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase; the inventory of Gabon ore is 336000 tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase but still far lower than the same period last year; the inventory of Australian ore is 537000 tons, continuing to increase and significantly higher than the same period last year [16]. Manganese Ore Port Price - At Tianjin Port, the price of Gabon lumps is 43.8 yuan/ton degree, Australian lumps are 43 yuan/ton degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 38.7 yuan/ton degree. The manganese ore market remains firm, and the transaction center has gradually moved up. Recently, the supply of South African manganese ore has been concentrated, and the market's sentiment of holding back supply and raising prices is prominent. Comilog released its April offer at 5.25 US dollars/ton degree [19]. Manganese Silicon Production - As of March 6, the weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased to 195800 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly to 14820 tons/day; the daily average production in Ningxia remained flat at 6035 tons/day; the daily average production in Yunnan increased to 700 tons/day; the daily average production in Guizhou increased to 1830 tons/day; the daily average production in Guangxi decreased to 1685 tons/day [30]. Manganese Silicon Demand - As of March 6, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 111200 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products increased to 797240 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased slightly month - on - month [35]. Manganese Silicon Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 5850 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it is 5900 yuan/ton. A large steel group in Hebei had no silicon - manganese procurement plan in February due to recent maintenance and will resume normal procurement in March. In January, the factory purchased 17000 tons [43]. Chemical Coke Price - This week, the price of chemical coke remained stable. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1190, 1140, and 1140 yuan/ton respectively. Hebei has a plan to lower the price of coke, and attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the spot price [46]. Manganese Silicon Production Profit - The immediate profit of manganese silicon is low, and the point - to - point profit is in a loss [50]. Monthly Spread - As of March 6, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of manganese silicon was - 46 yuan/ton, continuing to oscillate at a low level [54]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is oscillating, and the basis has strengthened slightly. As of March 5, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 249200 tons [57]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Production - As of March 6, the weekly production was 96500 tons, showing a slight month - on - month decrease. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 4685 tons, in Qinghai was 1415 tons, in Ningxia was 3620 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2500 tons [70]. Ferrosilicon Demand - Steel Mills: The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 17800 tons, lower than the same period last year [75]. - Magnesium Metal: The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port is 2470 US dollars/ton; the market price is 16750 yuan/ton, showing a slight month - on - month increase. The weekly production of magnesium metal is 20741 tons, at a high level in the same historical period. The market of magnesium ingots is running smoothly; the factory quotes of magnesium ingots remain unchanged at 16800 yuan/ton ex - factory including tax, and the actual transaction price is 16700 yuan. The market transactions are tepid, and the transactions maintain just - in - time procurement [79]. Ferrosilicon Export - As of March 5, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1135 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon is 1080 US dollars/ton, showing a slight month - on - month increase. In December, the import volume of ferrosilicon decreased slightly month - on - month, while the export volume increased month - on - month [87]. Ferrosilicon Raw Materials - As of March 5, the prices of mainstream semi - coke small materials decreased slightly. The current prices are 705 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 695 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale is 750 yuan/ton [96]. Ferrosilicon Production Profit - As of March 5, the point - to - point profit loss of ferrosilicon has narrowed significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are - 70, - 1, - 125, and - 449 yuan/ton respectively [108]. Monthly Spread - As of March 5, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of ferrosilicon was - 50 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening month - on - month [110]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is oscillating, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuates slightly. As of March 5, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 39500 tons. After the concentrated cancellation of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts in February, attention should be paid to the recovery of subsequent warehouse receipts [114]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese silicon show different trends. There is an oversupply situation in most months, but the degree of oversupply varies. The production and consumption cumulative year - on - year growth rates also show different trends over time [116]. Ferrosilicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and short supply. The production and consumption cumulative year - on - year growth rates also change over time [117].