股指期货早报2026.3.10：美伊冲突缓和油价下跌，A股震荡-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the 1-year inflation expectation of the New York Fed in February was 3%, lower than the previous value of 3.09%. President Trump said that the Iran war might be coming to an end, which reversed the recent market concerns about rising inflation and economic stagflation. Overnight, the US dollar index, US bond yields, and crude oil prices fell, while gold and US stocks rose. The overnight performance of the peripheral market can boost the risk appetite of the equity market [1]. - In the domestic market, the market showed a volatile decline on Monday. The sharp rise in crude oil prices suppressed the risk appetite of A-shares. The decline of A-shares narrowed in the afternoon as crude oil prices fell, and A-shares showed more resilience compared to the periphery. The A-share market still followed the logic of rising oil prices, with coal, agriculture, and new energy sectors performing actively. The coal, computer, power equipment, public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, while the communication, transportation, beauty care, military, and electronics sectors led the losses. There were 1,422 rising stocks and 3,960 falling stocks in the whole market [1]. - Overall, the overnight decline in crude oil prices and the signs of easing in the US-Iran conflict, along with the rise of US stocks, are favorable for the risk appetite of A-shares. Given the previous heavy volume decline near the 4,200-point level, there is significant pressure on the market index around this level. Considering the uncertainty of the US-Iran situation, it is believed that the index will show a volatile trend in the short term, and investors are advised to buy low and sell high [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Information - President Trump stated that the war was basically over, was considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz, was far from sending US ground troops to Iran, and it was too early to talk about seizing Iranian oil [4]. - US media reported that if Mujtaba did not meet US requirements, Trump supported killing him [5]. - Israeli media reported that Trump would make the final decision to end the military operation against Iran with Netanyahu at an "appropriate time." Additionally, Trump's son-in-law Kushner and US Middle East envoy Witkoff canceled their planned trip to Israel on Tuesday [5]. - Russian President Putin proposed several suggestions to quickly end the Iran conflict during a call with Trump. Sources said that the Trump administration was considering further relaxing sanctions on Russian oil [5]. - Iran threatened to strike neighboring oil facilities, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would continue if the market could bear an oil price of $200 [5]. - Sources said that Trump was considering suppressing oil prices, with options including restricting oil exports and intervening in the oil futures market. The US Energy Secretary said that discussions were underway to coordinate the release of strategic oil reserves, and banning oil exports was not under consideration [5]. - The work report of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress stated that this year, laws on state-owned assets and finance would be formulated, and legislative research in areas such as artificial intelligence would be strengthened [5]. - The Supreme People's Court report mentioned rectifying "involutionary" competition and hearing the "choose one of two" cases of two major e-commerce platforms [6]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the consumer price index in February increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the producer price index for industrial products decreased by 0.9% year-on-year [6]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted the trading fees for relevant contracts of fuel oil, crude oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil futures [7]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Performance: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [9]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: It presents the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading turnover, trading turnover changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the net positions of the top 20 member institutions [10]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - Market Performance: The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading turnover, price-to-earnings ratios, and other information of various major indices, such as the Wind All A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [32]. - Sector Performance: It details the performance of different sectors, including upstream (petroleum and petrochemical, coal, non-ferrous metals, etc.), midstream (construction materials, power equipment, etc.), consumer (food and beverage, medicine, etc.), TMT (electronics, computer, etc.), large finance (bank, non-bank finance, etc.), and public utilities (power, transportation, etc.) [32]. - Market Style Impact: The report analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, including the daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [33][34]. - Valuation: It provides the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices and Shenwan sectors [36][39]. - Other Indicators: The report also includes charts and data on market weekly average trading volume, weekly average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading turnover changes, stock-bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A-share trading turnover [41][42][43][44]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts and data on central bank open market operations (including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and Shibor interest rate levels [46].