沪铜日报：情绪降温，铜价反弹-20260310

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the copper market are showing marginal improvement, but the shortage of copper ore and the policy disturbances in the recycled copper market have not yet affected the actual copper production. The downstream demand has not fully recovered, and inventories are still accumulating, presenting a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations. - The remarks about the quick end of the war led to a correction in the energy sector, and the weakening of the US dollar supported the rebound of copper prices. With frequent news from the Middle - East situation, it has a significant impact on commodities, so caution is advised in both long and short positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - It is expected that the copper production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. Due to the resumption of production of enterprises that had maintenance in January and the increase in production of newly - put - into - operation smelters, the production in March may reach a historical high. - The recycled copper market is tight due to policy issues, and the market trading is restricted. The supply of recycled copper is slightly tight, and copper smelters face difficulties in recycling copper due to the shortage of anode copper. - The domestic downstream has a strong demand for tax - included recycled copper raw materials, with a high import demand, and it is expected that the import of scrap copper will increase in the future. - After the holiday, the downstream gradually resumes production, and the demand for copper is increasing marginally. As of March 6, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 315,500 tons, a weekly increase of 3.90%; the cathode copper inventory was 425,100 tons, a weekly increase of 8.59%, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down after the downstream started production [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 0 yuan/ton, and in South China was 35 yuan/ton. On March 9, 2026, the LME official price was $12,800/ton, and the spot premium was - $49.5/ton [3]. 3.3 Supply - Side - As of March 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $56.10/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.70 cents/lb [8]. 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 319,700 tons, an increase of 568 tons from the previous period. - As of March 9, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 87,600 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous period. - LME copper inventory was 294,300 tons, an increase of 9,925 tons from the previous period. - COMEX copper inventory was 596,400 short tons, a decrease of 1,724 short tons from the previous period [12].