甲醇日报：中东局势反复，行情极端-20260310

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - As of March 4, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4435 million tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 27,400 tons [1]. - This week, the methanol port inventory remained basically stable, with accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. During the period, 2.003 million tons of visible foreign vessels were included, and提货 gradually recovered compared to the Spring Festival period [1]. - In Jiangsu, there was concentrated unloading of foreign vessels, leading to an increase in supply and inventory accumulation. In Zhejiang, some foreign vessels being unloaded were not yet included, and the inventory slightly decreased under the background of rigid demand [1]. - This week, the inventory in South China ports showed destocking. In Guangdong, there was a small amount of imported and domestic trade cargo replenishment, and the downstream gradually recovered, driving the stable提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas, resulting in destocking. In Fujian, only a small amount of domestic trade cargo arrived at the port, and the downstream had rigid demand consumption, with little inventory fluctuation [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that all parties have the responsibility to ensure the stable and smooth supply of energy [2]. - Market news indicated that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait would cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day in total [2]. - Satellite images showed that Iran was still loading crude oil at its oil terminals and transporting a large amount of oil through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - Trump said that the soaring oil price was an "expected setback" and predicted that the short - term oil price would drop rapidly after the Iranian nuclear threat was eliminated [2]. - Russian President Putin said that the oil production related to the Strait of Hormuz might completely stagnate as early as next month, and the current high commodity prices were temporary. The oil terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, resumed loading [2]. - Trump said that the increase in oil price was lower than his expectation, and he would temporarily lift some oil - related sanctions to reduce the oil price. If Iran blocked the oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz, it would be hit twenty times more severely than currently [2]. - The spokesperson of the European Commission said that the EU institutions related to oil and gas supply would hold a meeting on the Middle East situation on Thursday [2]. - The G7 finance ministers' meeting reached a consensus not to release the oil strategic reserve for the time being, but they were "ready at any time" to release it if necessary [2]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The G7 did not release the oil reserve, but the US and Europe had corresponding measures for the oil price, including relaxing oil sanctions and forming an escort fleet. The US crude oil and Brent crude oil significantly declined, and domestic commodities also fell. The short - term volatility increased, and attention should be paid to controlling risks. The current situation between the US and Iran and the crude oil trend should be closely monitored [3]