山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.80%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 7.11%, the main contract of platinum closed up 4.26%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 4.02% [1]. - In the short - term, in terms of risk - aversion, the risk of the trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is weakening while inflation pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the US dollar index is strong [1]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the air strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US employment unexpectedly decreased in February and the unemployment rate rose. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation has put the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes showed that there are huge differences among decision - makers on the future direction of interest rates. In addition to the interest - rate - cut supporters and the wait - and - see group, the minutes for the first time clearly mentioned the discussion of the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are approaching the end, and the next interest rate cut may be in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium still has resilience, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price Data: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract is $5181.30 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and down 2.17% from the previous week; the London gold price is $5127.55 per ounce, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 1.81% from the previous week; the closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1140 yuan per gram, down 0.07% from the previous day and down 4.78% from the previous week; the closing price of gold T + D is 1139.96 yuan per gram, up 0.13% from the previous day and down 4.96% from the previous week [2]. - Other Data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange shows that the total net long position of the top 10 is 93,020, an increase of 5,115, with a daily ratio of 31.26%; the total net short position of the top 10 is 9,388, a decrease of 218, with a daily ratio of 3.15% [2][3]. Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors should sell high and buy low. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price Data: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract is $87.35 per ounce, up 3.13% from the previous day and down 2.53% from the previous week; the London silver price is $83.45 per ounce, up 1.34% from the previous day and down 11.81% from the previous week; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 22,758 yuan per kilogram, up 5.62% from the previous day and up 5.14% from the previous week; the closing price of silver T + D is 22,290 yuan per kilogram, up 4.70% from the previous day and up 4.03% from the previous week [4]. - Other Data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange shows that the total net long position of the top 10 is 91,191, a decrease of 483, with a daily ratio of 18.53%; the total net short position of the top 10 is 108,137, a decrease of 2,122, with a daily ratio of 21.98% [4][5]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors sell high and buy low. Manage positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price Data: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract is $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from the previous week; the London platinum price is $2138 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from the previous week; the closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from the previous week; the closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and up 0.20% from the previous week [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors sell high and buy low. Manage positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - Price Data: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract is $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from the previous week; the London palladium price is $1727 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from the previous week; the closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from the previous week [7]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - US Economic Indicators: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, the Fed's total assets are $6679.427 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.44, the US dollar index is 98.71, etc. [8]. - Inflation Indicators: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.90%, core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.00%, etc. [8]. - Other Indicators: The geopolitical risk index is 597.47, the VIX index is 25.50, the CRB commodity index is 356.89, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9243 [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range from March 2026 to December 2027 according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].