原油日报：冲高后大幅回落-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, with no further production increase plan determined yet and possible future adjustments. This is mainly to cope with the expected significant decline in Iran's crude oil exports after the attack [1]. - The EIA data shows that the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was small, and the overall oil inventories continued to increase [1][3]. - The continuous conflicts among the U.S., Israel, and Iran have led to a sharp decline in Iranian oil production and exports, and the closure of some oil - related facilities in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz has almost stopped shipping for many days, causing production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries [1]. - Overseas crude oil prices once rose close to $120 per barrel, but then fell sharply as G7 countries discussed releasing strategic oil reserves and Trump said he would temporarily lift some oil - related sanctions [1]. - The Middle East situation has caused huge fluctuations in crude oil prices. It is recommended to watch carefully and pay attention to the progress of the Middle East situation and the export of Middle Eastern crude oil [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - OPEC+ will increase production in April to deal with the decline in Iranian exports. The next meeting will be held on April 5 [1]. - The U.S., Israel, and Iran are in conflict. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping route. Many oil - related facilities in the Middle East have been attacked and shut down [1]. - Overseas crude oil prices first rose and then fell due to the discussion of releasing strategic oil reserves and the statement of lifting sanctions [1]. 3.2期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 fell 10.76% to 666.3 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 625.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 818.0 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 4,679 to 31,422 lots [2]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3]. - The U.S. EIA data on March 4 showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27, exceeding expectations, and the overall oil inventories continued to increase [1][3]. 3.4 Supply - side - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC+'s average crude oil production in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran [4]. - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day in the week of February 27, and it is near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 21.02 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.55% compared to the same period last year, and the increase amplitude decreased [4]. - The weekly production of gasoline and diesel decreased, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to continue to decrease by 7.40% [4].