橡胶甲醇原油：地缘风险降温，能化震荡回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Rubber: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly closing up. The closing price rose 0.32% to 17,115 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 120 yuan/ton. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating consolidation trend in the future [6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,799 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,375 yuan/ton. At the close, it significantly closed down 7.58% to 2,549 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 86 yuan/ton. As the geopolitical risk significantly cools down, the methanol premium is given back, and the futures price starts to correct. Due to the lack of fundamental support, it is expected that the methanol futures price may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [7]. - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, the 2604 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 818.0 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 625.0 yuan/barrel. At the close, the futures price significantly fell 10.76% to 666.3 yuan/barrel. As US President Trump said that military operations may be nearing the end and the shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually restored, the geopolitical risk significantly cools down, and the crude oil premium is significantly given back. Against the background that the bullish factors are significantly digested, it is expected that the domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of Chinese semi - steel tires was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed work and production, and most enterprises had returned to the normal level during the week, which boosted the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of the tire sample enterprises next week. At present, the production scheduling of each enterprise has basically returned to the normal level, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate next week. However, the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has increased the resistance to the shipment of orders in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises [9]. - In February 2026, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in February 2026. Affected by factors such as holidays, the logistics activity slowed down steadily. The China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in February 2026 was 47.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The number of effective working days this month was significantly less than in previous years. At the same time, the business activity expectation index in February was 51%, remaining in the expansion range [10]. - In February 2026, about 75,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the Chinese heavy - duty truck industry exceeded 180,000, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.73%, and a significant increase of 8.70% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 16,400 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.61%. At the same time, in terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a week - on - week slight increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.44 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 39 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in the ports of East and South China in China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 32,600 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 44,600 tons, and a slight increase of 76,200 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of March 5, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 552,400 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 17,100 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 184,000 tons, and a significant increase of 142,300 tons compared with 410,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 407, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2 and a decrease of 79 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 600,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.88 million barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 439 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.475 million barrels and a slight increase of 5.504 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, in the United States reached 26.463 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.564 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415.212 million barrels, unchanged week - on - week. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 89.2%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 3.3 percentage points [13]. - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,150 contracts, a week - on - week slight decrease of 562 contracts and a significant increase of 33,041 contracts compared with the average of 139,109 contracts in February, an increase of 23.75%. On the other hand, as of March 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 246,514 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 54,198 contracts and a significant increase of 85,120 contracts compared with the average of 161,394 contracts in February, an increase of 52.74% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,950 yuan/ton | +350 yuan/ton | 17,115 yuan/ton | +220 yuan/ton | - 165 yuan/ton | - 220 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,935 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,549 yuan/ton | - 281 yuan/ton | +386 yuan/ton | +281 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 555.4 yuan/barrel | - 1.5 yuan/barrel | 666.3 yuan/barrel | - 105.5 yuan/barrel | - 110.9 yuan/barrel | +104.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][19][22][24][27]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][39]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [43][45][46][48][50][53].