油粕日报：超涨回落-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil's decline has led to a drop in soybean meal prices. However, due to the limited arrival of near - month soybeans, oil mills' soybean inventories continue to decline, and the upcoming US biofuel policy at the end of the month provides support for US soybeans and soybean meal. In the short term, soybean meal may fall but has obvious downside support. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's March supply - demand report [2]. - The Indonesian government may reconsider launching the B50 biodiesel program in the middle of the year, which will significantly increase the domestic demand for palm oil. If palm oil prices maintain a long - term price advantage over diesel, similar policy adjustments may become a long - term trend [2]. - The oil and fat sector has followed the decline of the crude oil sector. The monthly supply - demand report for Malaysian palm oil shows weak supply and demand, providing no obvious drive. In the short term, the market sentiment in the Middle East dominates the market. Before the war ends, there is still a certain premium in the crude oil and oil and fat sectors, and risk management should be emphasized [3]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of March 7, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate is 50.6%, compared with 41.7% last week, 60.9% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 48.5% [1]. - In the 10th week of 2026, in the main domestic oil mills, soybean inventory decreased by 4.03% week - on - week to 572.67 million tons, but increased by 54.73% year - on - year; soybean meal inventory increased by 8.46% week - on - week to 76.05 million tons and 28.27% year - on - year; unexecuted contracts increased by 47.72% week - on - week to 430.64 million tons and 44.22% year - on - year; the apparent consumption of soybean meal increased by 129.06% week - on - week to 138.88 million tons and 10.42% year - on - year [1]. Palm Oil - The Indonesian government may reconsider the B50 biodiesel program in the middle of the year. Previously, in January, due to low oil prices, the program was suspended, and the B40 policy continued. [2]. - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 581,364 tons, a 45.34% increase compared to the same period last month [2]. - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,704,286 tons, a 3.94% decrease month - on - month; imports were 76,276 tons, a 136.03% increase month - on - month; production was 1,284,699 tons, an 18.55% decrease month - on - month; exports were 1,127,605 tons, a 22.48% decrease month - on - month [2]. Three Major Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil) - As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in the large - sample in China was 234.06 million tons, a 0.37% increase week - on - week and a 2.79% decrease year - on - year [3].