碳酸锂日报：期货下方出现较强买盘，碳酸锂现货成交略有回升-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased and inventory has slightly declined, providing support. The recovery of the waste recycling market has led to a marginal improvement in demand. However, the year - to - date decline in new energy vehicle sales and the cautious procurement of downstream material manufacturers limit the upside potential. The weakening basis may attract arbitrage trading. Overall, the tight supply - demand structure dominates the short - term price resilience, but the uncertainty of demand needs continuous monitoring [3][51][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On March 9, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 161,060 yuan/ton, up 4,900 yuan/ton or 3.14% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly to - 7,260 yuan/ton [1][35][49]. - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the main contract was 330,671 lots on March 9, 2026, a decrease of 3,232 lots or 0.97% from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased to 402,478 lots, an increase of 174,254 lots [1][36][37]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 73.46%, a significant contraction compared to 85.72% on February 27, 2026. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained flat at 16,600 yuan/ton and 9,000 yuan/ton respectively. Although the waste lithium - battery recycling market resumed production in early March 2026, the overall supply was tight [2][50]. - Demand Side: According to the Passenger Car Association data on February 11, 2026, from February 1 - 8, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 42% year - on - year and wholesale increased by 39%, but the year - to - date cumulative retail sales decreased by 14%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 2.13%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.23%. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing at low prices, and most remained on the sidelines, with overall weak demand [2][47][50]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 100,093 physical tons on February 27, 2026, to 99,373 physical tons on March 6, 2026, a decrease of 720 tons or 0.72% [2][45][50]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The significant decrease in supply - side capacity utilization and the slight decrease in inventory provide support, along with the marginal improvement in demand brought about by the recovery of the waste recycling market. However, the year - to - date decline in new energy vehicle sales and the cautious procurement of downstream material manufacturers limit the upside potential. The weakening basis may attract arbitrage trading [3][51][52].